Carnage’s Long and Boring week 15 Review

The season is officially over for me as of the end of Week 15. My team, the Green Bay Packers, are officially out of the playoff chase, winning only 5 games (And having a shot at winning 7). My fantasy football teams are finished. It was a pretty successful season. My wife and I had five teams. Combined record: 51-20-1. 4 Division Titles, 5 playoff teams. I sent two teams to the Super Bowl, winning one. My attempt at a perfect season was ended in the other one leaving me at 14-1. We each had one team make the second round and she had a team eliminated in the first. I have to boast about what success we had after going 0-4 as far as making the playoffs last season.

That’s not to say there isn’t plenty of season left. I still love the game, even when I do not have personal stakes in anything. There are some good football teams out there and some great games left on the docket. Let’s take a look at what transpired this week.

Bears over Saints or “Force Hester to catch the ball!”

On immediate glance at the game stats, it looks like this would have been the Saints game all the way. 120 more yards, 10 minutes Time of Possession edge, 1 fewer turnover. Looks like a dominating performance, right? Well, there are those two little things called penalties and special teams that really changed the face of this game.

Both times that the Bears went deep on the Saints, they were looking for speedster Devin Hester who had a step or two on his coverage. Both times the Saints interfered with the play leading to a total of 77 yards worth of penalties on those two plays. Both were on 3^rd down well out of field goal range. Devin Hester has been a great return man in previous years but his biggest weakness has been catching the ball. Don’t give him the sure yardage, make him prove he can hang onto it!

The scored on the first possession with a Daniel Manning kick return that saw nobody touch him past the Bears’ 40. Manning followed that up with a 57 yard return that led to a Bears touchdown soon after. For the Bears third score, a solid punt by Brad Maynard and a series of Penalties left the Saints punting from their 7 yard line and the Bears once again getting the ball in Saints territories. I don’t care how superior your offense is, if you lose the field position game you will win the game.

I was most impressed with Kyle Orton on Sunday. He played horribly for the majority of the game but he sucked it up when it counted. Going into the final drive of regulation he was 16-30 with 110 yards and 2 interceptions. Instead of crawling into a shell he displayed confidence spreading the ball around to five different receivers en route to an 8/10 62 yard finish. I truly believe Rex Grossman would have added another blunder to his list while Orton calmly left his poor performance behind him and rose to the occasion.

Drew Brees struggled for the 2^nd time in three weeks against an opponent that uses the cover 2 scheme. While it would seem that Brees and the Saints would pick apart the typical cover-2 defense, I think the Saints need that lateral game to really be effective. The Saints did not run enough plays to exploit the moderate length outside weaknesses of the defense and too often ended up having to settle for short completions.

Statistical Notes – In the last five games, Pierre Thomas has 574 total yards, 8 touchdowns, and 16 receptions. His 4.7 Yards per carry tower over both Reggie Bush and Deuce Mccallister. He has also proven to be a pretty decent kick return man. The undrafted rookie is essentially what people hoped Reggie Bush would be. Drew Brees has multiple TD passes in 13/14 games and now leads the league with 28. With 2 games left, rookie Matt Forte has 11 touchdowns, the most in a single season by a Bears player since Curtis Conway had 12 in 1995.

Falcons over Buccanneers or “The Brian Griese Aerial Circus.”

Once again, Tampa went to a pass happy offense when it has been their running game that has kept them winning this season. In their five losses, the Bucs have ran 211 passes to 106 rushing plays. In their 9 wins, they passed 283 times and ran 292 times. Four of their losses were at a combined 14 points. The 15 point romp by the Panthers was a tie game headed into the fourth. They aren’t passing the ball around during runaway games, they are passing in games that they are in…and losing them.

Despite the fact that the Bucs defense has been spectacular in pass defense and even better at creating turnovers, its painfully obvious that they are vulnerable to the run. Michael Turner had a lot of big gains where he simply wasn’t touched until he reached the secondary. The front seven of Tampa is wavering and that doesn’t bode well for them if they make the playoffs. The Vikings, Giants, Panthers, and Falcons…all playoff hopefuls….run the ball very well. The Bucs need to get a grip on run defense.

The Falcons played a pretty ugly game but it was good enough to get it done. After the first quarter, they only had three drives of any substance. These drives all ended in turnovers. The Harry Douglas fumble in the end zone was particularily painful.

Antonio Bryant is absolutely the comeback player of the year. After being juggled around by three teams in five years and finding himself out of the NFL in 2007, he is having an amazing season. Only in the last two games is he really getting recognition but he has been a big part of this team for awhile now. With the Bucs losing Joey Galloway who carried most of the receiving load for them, Bryant has come in and really stepped up. He has 74 catches and over 1000 yards. No other Tampa player has more than 41 catches or 380 yards. He has run some excellent routes in the last two games.

Statistical Notes – Tampa’s defense game up with its 10^th multiple turnover game of the year. Unfortunately, they have given up 474 yards on the ground in two weeks. Jeff Garcia was thrown 3 interceptions in 309 attempts. Brian Griese has thrown 7 interceptions in 184 attempts. Warrick Dunn went over 1000 total yards for the 11^th time in his 12 year career. John Abraham had his 3^rd 3 sack game of the season bringing his total to 15.5 on the year. Matt Ryan has 3 INT’s in the last two games…the first time he threw an INT in back to back games. Michael Turner has scored in 5 of the last 6 games. Antonio Bryant has 17 catches for 308 yards and 3 TD’s in two games. He is on pace for 84 catches and 1200+ yards.

Bengals over Redskins or “A tale of two seasons.”

The self destruction of the Redskins is amazing. At one point they were 10-2 in regular season play dating back to last season. They had back to back wins on the road against the Eagles and Cowboys, both tough divisional foes. At 6-2, they had The Seahawks at home, Bengals, 49ers, and three home divisional games. Should be able to come up with 4 or 5 wins out of that, right? Now they have to win out to make it to three wins and a 9-7 record.

Amidst all of the problems between Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn, the Redskins desperately needed someone to stand up and become a leader. With the Redskins down by 17 to the lowly Bengals, they finally get it together and engineer a drive that ends with a 10 yard touchdown pass from Jason Campbell to Santana Moss. Moss performed an obviously pre planned touchdown celebration that led to a 15 yard penalty on the kickoff, giving the Bengals the ball on the 45. The Bengals did nothing with the ball on that possession but down by 10 and having lost four of your last five games, why are you celebrating?

Cedric Benson’s 79 yard screen play was a thing of beauty. As soon as Benson caught the ball, three Bengals offensive linemen released and started leading him down the field. Each threw a big block, one running as far as 15 yards downfield to cream a Redskins defender. The play was well executed by Benson, Fitzpatrick, and the O-Line.

On the other side, the Redskins attempt at the goal line was ugly. With a 1^st and goal from the 1, the Redskins chose to pass on first down. Incomplete. On second down, the handed the ball off to fullback Mike Sellers. To this point in the season, Sellers has 4 total carries. He does not get in. Third down, another handoff to Sellers and not only does he not get in, he fumbles and the Bengals recover, touchback. I personally believe his forward progress was stopped and the Redskins should have kept the ball, but the officials disagree. My question is……did the Clinton Portis/Jim Zorn fued have anything to do with the play calling? Portis is a strong back that has scored from inside the four on five occasions this season. Mike Sellers is a fine lead blocker. Why not let the pair do what they do best and hand the ball to Portis four times if necessary? Then again, when Portis did get the chance to win the game on the final drive, he dropped a pass on what likely would have been a touchdown.

Statistical Notes – Cedric Benson went over 100 total yards for the second time as a Bengal. He only went over 100 twice in his entire time as a Bear. Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the team lead in Rushing touchdowns with…2. The Redskins turned the ball over 5 times in the last two games, the same amount of turnovers in the first seven. Santana Moss scored for the first time in seven weeks. Chris Cooley has caught at least five balls in 10 games this season.

Texans over Titans or “Titans act like they forgot about ‘Dre”

Andre Johnson is having an absolutely incredible season and yet the Titans decided to play single coverage on him most of the day. Not saying that the Texans don’t have any other weapons but I think I will take my chances with Kevin Walter instead. Free Safety Michael Griffin who is having a pretty good season for the Titans looked lost when it came to Johnson. He continuously was way late for the party, totally out of position, or getting burnt by Johnson. The Guy has caught at least 7 passes in 9 games this season! Cover him!

The Texans are gobbling up tons of yards this season but they have scored a disturbingly low number of points to go along with them (3^rd in the league in offensive yards, 18^th in points scored). They simply can’t get it done in the Red Zone. Out of 4 trips they came away with only 13 points. In those possessions, I noticed they didn’t throw to Owen Daniels at all. If I’m in the Red Zone, I’m trying to get the ball to him on play action or throw a fade to the large, physical Johnson…which seemed to work well the one time they tried it.

I’m starting to worry about Kerry Collins’ ability to win the game for the Titans when the opposition stacks the box and takes Chris Johnson and Lendale white out of the picture. Not just him, but his receiving group. There were some really bad routes run, bad passes thrown, and quite a few drops. I think the image of Algae Crumpler backpeddling and turning this way and that looking for the ball when he was wide open. The first thing is that you need to keep running forward to have a good chance at the ball. Either Algae is lacking in fundamentals or he doesn’t trust his QB to be able to throw the ball far enough, neither is really a good sign.

I really have to question Jeff Fisher’s decision to go for it on 4^th and 3 rather than put in Rob Bironas for a 49 yard field goal. First, Bironas has been money in the last two seasons, hitting 28/33 from 40+. Second, his rationale for not kicking the field goal was the swirling winds. If you are worried about the wind, why throw the ball 30 yards downfield on that play? Collins precision on Sunday was questionable as it is, if the winds were that bad not to have your accurate kicker attempt the figgy, how can you let your inaccurate QB throw it deep?

Statistical Notes – Andre Johnson leads the league in receptions and yards. He’s on pace for 117 catches for 1605. Average game for Johnson with Matt Schaub at the helm: 7.75 catches for 113 yards. Average game for Johnson with Sage Rosenfels at the helm: 6.8 catches for 84 yards. Matt Schaub had 1 TD and 5 INT’s in his first two games, 12 TD’s and 4 INT’s in his next 6. Houston has not dipped below 326 yards of offense since week 1. The Titans turned the ball over 5 times in the last 2 weeks. They turned the ball over 4 times in the previous 7. Titans receptions leader Bo Scaife has only 6 catches for 38 yards the last three games.

Jets over Bills or “Dick Jauron shows off his coaching savvy.”

Leading by 3 with 2:09 on the clock the Jets are facing a 2^nd and 5. Marshawn Lynch had just powered his way to gains of 4,5,3, and 5 yards to give the Bills a first down and get them halfway to another one. Dick Jauron decided to call a pass play. This particular play involved J.P. Losman rolling right and hitting running back Corey Mcintyre for a short gain. Offensive juggernaught Corey Mcintyre has 3 catches (10, -1, 0) in his three year career. The line collapses and Losman finds himself attacked by several Jets defenders when he fumbles the ball and the Jets take it in for a touchdown. Had the Bills simply handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch two straight plays, it’s likely he would have gotten the first down and the Bills would have gotten the win. Instead it’s another loss.

The Jets tackling was abysmal to say the least. Lynch and Fred Jackson required six defenders to take them down on a few plays. The Bills running game which hasn’t been that explosive this season found itself gaining 6.1 yards per carry. Lynch played a very physical game and looked great.

Believe it or not, the Jets second longest run of the game was a scamper by….Brett Favre? On 3^rd and 1 Favre faked a handoff and took off to the left side where there was absolutely nobody in a Bills uniform. The old man galloped his way not only to a first down but a gain of 27 yards! I know that the Bills bought the play fake and all but to allow a 40 year old slow QB to go for 27 yards in inexcuseable. On the other hand, the Jets do have some speed in that backfield in the form of Leon Washington. The Jets spread their wideouts and sent them on deep routes. Washington took a quick inside handoff from Favre and ran untouched for 47 yards. Washington is fast. Thomas Jones is having a fantastic season but the Jets need to find a way to get Washington the ball a bit more.

Statistical Notes – Marshawn Lynch failed to gain 100 total yards in any of the first nine games. He has now broken that barrier 4 times in the last 5 games. J.P. Losman has turned the ball over 13 times in 119 pass plays this season. That is about once every 9 plays. After starting 4-0, the Bills have lost 8 of 10, turning the ball over 24 times in those 8 losses. Thomas Jones has scored in 8 straight and has 15 TD’s on the season. He is on pace for 1600 total yards. Brett Favre has now gone over 3000 yards in 17 straight seasons.

Vikings over Cardinals or “Cardinals redefining One-Dimensional.”

The idea of the Cardinals in the playoffs is seeming less and less appealing with every decent team they play. They are 8-6 but to look a little deeper that is a pretty week 8-6. Their eight wins come from opponents a combined 41-71…..taking away the Cowboys and Dolphins and you have 23-61 for the other six victories. Those are some pretty rotten teams. Their six losses have come from teams a combined 55-28-1.

I think the problem is that they can’t simply play 6 on 6 playground ball against these better teams. Their defense is strong enough to handle the weaker teams and the offense can have their way with them. Against a team like Minnesota their offense ends up on the sidelines for far too long, Kurt Warner cools down and never really gets in sync. The Vikings defense can put in a Nickel (Or Dime) back on every single play and rush Kurt Warner with no consideration for outside containment or a delayed handoff. The Cardinals gave up any pretense of running the ball early on in this game and I think that was the core of a lot of their woes. I know the Cardinals are way better when throwing the ball, but 7 runs out of 61 plays is ridiculous. They need to keep defenses honest.

I thought this game was one of Adrian Peterson’s greatest performances. He was a human wrecking ball that shed tacklers as always, but he seems to be developing patience. On quite a few of his big gains he took his time and picked the hole instead of simply trying to run over defenders. Not that the running over defenders hasn’t worked for him thus far but avoiding them first, running over them later will make him even more dangerous.

What to do about Tarvaris Jackson? Suddenly he is out there making some great throws with Gus Frerotte injured and sitting on the sidelines. Whomever leads this squad is expected to be more of a “Game Manager” type while Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor carry the brunt of the offense. Ideally, you want your game manager to complete a high percentage of passes and have a low amount of turnovers. Frerotte has 15 interceptions in only 301 attempts. He isn’t completing 60% of his passes. Needless to say, he isn’t exactly lighting it up. If Jackson can stay on target with his passes, he is the obvious choice because of the added threat to take off running that he presents. Jackson had a rough opening two games, but I’m starting to wonder if it was more that the Vikings offense started clicking in week 3 as opposed to Gus Frerotte making all the difference.

Statistical Notes – The Vikings have ran the ball only 31 times in their last three losses. They’ve had more than 76 rushing yards just once since week 5, and are throwing on 76% of plays for the season. After throwing 19 TD’s to only 6 INT’s in the first 9 weeks, Warner has 7 of each in the last five games. Neither Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald have topped the 100 yard mark since week 11 when they combined for 23 catches and 337 yards. Steve Breaston is 83 yards away from becoming the third receiver on a team to catch for 1000 yards in a season for the first time since Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley did it in 2004. Adrian Peterson went over 100 rushing yards for the ninth time this season. He is on pace for 1800 rushing yards.

Colts over Lions or “Close in the fourth quarter again? Are the Lions getting better?”

Really, I just wanted to say that the Lions have some hope for the future. Despite each of them putting the ball on the ground in this game Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith really showed that they were good picks and have the potential to be a great duo for years to come. Calvin Johnson is a ridiculous physical specimen. He’s fast, he knows how to use his body on slant routes, and he can just plan out muscle smaller corners when you put the ball near him. The season he is having is even more incredible when you consider how bad the team is and the fact that he’s had five different QB’s in the huddle. Kevin Smith showed a lot of evasiveness on Sunday. On his 25 yard run he made an incredible jump stop, switched directions, and then switches directions again. He can run between the tackles and he can run it on the outside. I really wonder why the Lions were giving the ball to Rudi Johnson earlier in the season when they have a great talent to develop.

I’m starting to favor the Colts to be the AFC representatives in the Super Bowl. This team is starting to have shades of the 2006 version. Both teams were forgotten about amidst the other strong AFC teams. Both teams had some injuries to work through. Both hit rough patches during the season (Near the end for v.2006, start for v.2008). They even have the potential of finishing with the same 12-4 record. Peyton Manning got past his early struggles and his the offense ticking. Dominic Rhodes and Dallas Clark are starting to get more involved in the offense. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders will be returning to the club in week 16 or 17….. They’ll probably draw the Broncos in the first round and I can’t see them losing that game.

Statistical Notes – Calvin Johnson had his 4^th 100 yard game of the season and has scored in 8 of the last 10 games. He is on pace for 75 catches and 1350 yards. Kevin Smith went over 1000 total yards and is second on the team in receptions. The Lions have allowed 31 or more points nine times this season. The colts have won 7 straight and Peyton Manning has 13 TD’s to only 3 INT’s in that stretch. Reggie Wayne went over 1000 yards for the fifth straight season. Dominic Rhodes now leads the Colts with 8 Touchdowns. Marvin Harrison’s 2 catches were enough to pass Tim Brown to become the #3 all time in receptions. He also holds the record for most receptions in a single season (143).

Steelers over Ravens or “Pittsburgh fans go back to the doctor to up their dose of Valium.”

After last week and another come from behind 4^th quarter win I suggested that Pittsburgh fans would need some sedatives to keep them from having a heart attack during Steelers games. This week they pulled off another fantastic fourth quarter drive to win the game. This was one heck of a physical game and I enjoyed every minute of it. I would watch the Ravens vs. Steelers every week if I could.

My favorite play of the game came in the third quarter on a 3^rd and 8 for Pittsburgh. The Ravens sent five up front to rush Big Ben and Ed Reed came charging up the middle seemingly out of nowhere and wrapped Roethisberger up for the sack. My dad, a fan of aggressive defenses was quiet for a bit and asked “Why don’t the Packers have players like that.” The Packers have some great players in the secondary but Ed Reed is fantastic. The man is always around the ball. The talk this week has been “Would you take Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu?” I think I’d take Polamalu because he’s three years younger but Ed Reed is as good of a safety as I’ve seen in a long time.

Ben Roethisberger is given a lot of credit for the Steelers drives but an often overlooked component of this team is Hines Ward. 6 of Ward’s 8 catches came on the two fourth quarter scoring drives. He makes sure to draw attention to himself after making a play, often causing defenses to watch him more closely and leave others open to make plays. Ward hasn’t put up big numbers for most of his career and doesn’t seem to have any overwhelming physical skills but he is a cagey veteran that runs great routes.

Actually, I do not understand the ruling on the touchdown catch by Santonio Holmes. In my mind, the ball did not break the goal line while in Holmes’ possession. Is it a touchdown if you have two feet down in the end zone but the ball is outside it? It would stand to reason that this is the case as on a punt the player downing the ball cannot be in the end zone when he touches the ball regardless of where the ball is or it is a touchback. The call on the field seemed to say that the ball crossed the line but I can’t believe that. Anyone know the rule?

The Steelers next week will round out one of the most difficult stretches of games imaginable. Without the Bengals interlude, the Steelers will have faced 8 teams with a combined 73-39 record….and if they can beat the Titans they will be the #1 seed throughout the playoffs. That is an impressive accomplishment.

Statistical Notes – Through 14 games, the Steelers have not allowed more than 290 yards by their opponent in any single game. After throwing 8 picks in 3 games, Big Ben has only 1 pick in his last five. They have allowed only four touchdowns in the last 20 quarters of football. The Ravens have turned the ball over as many times in the last 2 weeks (4) as they did the previous 7. Since Week 7, the Ravens are +12 (20-8) in the turnover department. The Ravens had more rushing yards (112) than net passing yards (90). The Ravens had 1^st and 10 at the Steelers 16, 16, and 11. They never made it past the 8 yard line.

Jaguars over Packers or “Cure for ailing offense? Get the Packers on your schedule!”

Oh has this season been rough. Since the win against the Colts, Packers fans have had to endure watching their team take the lead or tie it up only to see the other team march down the field with 3 minutes or less to go in the game five times. The offense comes down and does its job and the defense fails spectacularly. It hurts to watch.

After picking up 17 yards on 3^rd and 18 in the fourth, the Jaguars had a 4^th and 1 and went with an empty backfield. Quarterback draw! I yelled. Garrard is going to run with it! The Packers looked as if they weren’t expecting it, first down. A few plays later, touchdown Jacksonville.

In the Wisconsin sports yak world, people have been calling for the Packers to draft or trade for a running back in the offseason. Coming into this year, I was not at all convinced that Ryan Grant was the answer. His numbers have not been good, but the guy has been running really hard the last 6 or so games. He misses a hole now and then but he is a young runner. I’ve started to like Ryan Grant while the media has turned on him.

I really don’t want to talk about this game anymore. To be fair, I took the homer out of myself and predicted that the Packers would go 7-9 this season. I still think that they will reach that mark, but the way that the games have gone down leave me feeling ill….watching them go 3-9 after a 2-0 start is painful.

Statistical Notes – Greg Jennings has scored in 4 of the last 5 games. Aaron Rodgers is on pace for 3955 passing yards and 30 total touchdowns (26 passing, 4 rushing). The Packers defense has given up at least 311 yards in all but 3 games. The Jaguars put up 20 points for only the second time since the bye week. Maurice Jones-Drew has 38 touchdowns in 45 games. He has as many touchdowns this season as the rest of the Jaguars offense combined. Reggie Haywards 2 sacks puts him as the Jaguars leader…with 4.5. The Packers defense failed to force a turnover for only the second time this season.

Cowboys over Giants or “On the Rise: Cowboys Defense”

While the offense continues to suffer from injuries and internal conflict, the Cowboys defense has rose to the occasion to make a playoff push. They made the day a living hell for Eli Manning, sacking him 8 times, hurrying him most of the day, and forcing him to throw quite a few poor passes. Demarcus Ware has emerged as an absolute monster coming from the outside.

The Giants offense struggled mightily in the face of this onslaught and without Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacobs. Of course, I almost think that the injury to Brandon Jacobs did more damage because the Giants have reconsidered their offensive scheme. They switched from trying to establish a strong running game to going to a more pass orientated offense. I find this decision questionable with the success that the Cowboys were having getting to Eli Manning. Derrick Ward isn’t the back Bradon Jacobs is, but he performed fairly well…averaging 4.6 yards on his 14 carries.

Watching Marion Barber run this week, it is clear that he still isn’t really ready to go and was wise to not play last week. I guarantee the words that Jerry Jones had about Barber made him get on the field Sunday Night and he ended up not doing the team any favors. Tashard Choice has done a fine job filling in for Barber, so I do not understand what the urgency to get him on the field is. Let him sit until he is healed up and ready to play at a high level again.

The Giants sure can get into the backfield fast themselves. Justin Tuck and Mathais Kiwanuka looked completely unimpeded on their way to crunching Tony Romo in the end zone for a safety. As Romo lay motionless, Cowboys fans cringed with visions of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger dancing in their heads. Thankfully, Romo was allright. The Cowboys found a way to take advantage of the strong outside blitz of the Giants. They started executing delayed handoffs out of the I formation and more so out of the shotgun. The Giants were already coming all out at the corners leaving Choice and Barber some room to run up the middle. The blitzing backfired a few more times as Cowboys receivers found plenty of room to roam short in the middle of the field picking up some key first downs.

Statistical Notes – Tashard Choice has 309 yards of total offense in the last two weeks. Tony Romo has 7 multiple TD games out of 11. He is on pace for 3500 yards and 30 TD’s despite missing 3 games. Terrell Owens has between 31 and 38 yards receiving in 7 of the last 9 games. Maybe if he hadn’t dropped that pass on the first possession…. Roy Williams has only 14 catches for 182 yards as a Cowboy. That’s an expensive decoy. Eli Manning failed to throw for a touchdown for the first time since week 1. He is completed only 50% of his passes the last two weeks. Demarcus Ware has at least a half a sack in 16 of the last 17 games dating back to last season. He has 19 total this year. The Cowboys lead the league with 53 sacks combined.

Panthers over Broncos or “Jam Steve Smith at the Line!”

Steve Smith romped all over the Broncos secondary on Sunday. Time and time again they played off him, time and time again he streaked by them. Steve Smith is not a big guy. He’s deceptively strong but he’s not going to be physically dominating you. Why let him get a running start? On his touchdown reception, the Panthers lined up two wide receivers to the right with Smith on the outside. Somehow, Mushin Muhammed managed to block two Broncos Cornerbacks leaving Smith wide open on the screen. How are you not right up on this guy? If he gets past you, that is what the safety is for! He’s going to get past you anyway so you might as well play him tight!

The Panthers made sure that they kept the Broncos receivers in front of them, giving up short patterns most of the game but denying the long pass. Jay Cutler looked frustrated near the end of the game, unable to find anyone open downfield even when he had the time. Cutler’s 172 yards on 33 attempts was his lowest yards per attempt of the season. During the second half, I was absolutely convinced that the Broncos could not score again, and they did not.

Statistical Notes – Steve Smith had his 7^th 100 yard game of his 12 game season. He also has two 96 yard games. He leads the league with an average of 103 yards per game. Deangelo Williams extended his touchdown streak to 8 games. He has 16 in the season…all in the last 10 games. Jonathon Stewart scored for the third time in two games and is one away from double digits on the year. Jay Cutler has thrown at least one INT in 8 of the last 9 games. Brandon Marshall has gone 11 games without a 100 yard weekend after starting with games of 166 and 155. Tony Schaeffler became the 11^th Bronco to run the ball. He lost a yard on his single carry.

Carnage Guesses on games: Yikes! What a bad week. 8-8. Same as the coin flip. My crazy upset special should have come through if Dick Jauron wasn’t a terrible coach. 137-81 on the season.

Saints over Bears

Falcons over Bucs

Redskins over Bengals

Titans over Texans

Packers over Jaguars

Dolphins over 49ers

Rams over Seahawks

Chargers over Chiefs

Colts over Lions

Cardinals over Vikings

Panthers over Broncos

Patriots over Raiders

Giants over Cowboys

Eagles over Browns

Ravens over Steelers

Crazy Upset pick – Bills over Jets

This is what I have going on for Week 16

Colts over Jaguars

Bengals over Browns

Saints over Lions

Patriots over Cardinals

Steelers over Titans

Dolphins over Chiefs

Bucs over Chargers

Jets over Seahawks

Houston over Raiders

Packers over Bears

Ravens over Cowboys

Falcons over Vikings

Eagles over Redskins

Giants over Panthers

Crazy upset Duo!

Rams over 49ers – Rams starting to play better

Bills over Broncos – Broncos can’t stop the run, Lynch is hot, and the Broncos can’t run. The Bills failed me last week, but not this week.

Carnage’s Long and Boring Week 14 Review

Week 14 of the season has come and gone. Three games left. Three teams have clinched division titles (Titans, Giants, and Cardinals.) If your team is done like mine, don’t fret. There is plenty of interesting races going down yet. Let’s take a quick look at some of them.

AFC East:

New York Jets (8-5). Remaining games are Bills, at Seahawks, Dolphins

New England Patriots (8-5). At Raiders, Cardinals, at Bills

Miami Dolphins (8-5). 49ers, at Chiefs, at Jets

Boy, this one is tough to call. The Jets went from looking like the team to beat to…well…losing to the Broncos and 49ers. All of these teams have reasonably easy schedules. I say that Miami wins outright at 11-5 with the others going 10-6.

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3). At Ravens, at Titans, Browns

Baltimore Ravens (9-4). Steelers, at Cowboys, Jaguars

Both teams have the right to claim impressive records considering their schedules. Ouch. Next week will be one physical matchup. I favor the Steelers eve with their inability to protect their QB.

NFC North:

Minnesota Vikings (8-5). AT Cardinals, Falcons, Giants

Chicago Bears (7-6). Saints, Packers, at Texans

I think the Bears have one win left I them and that is about it. I am not convinced that they are a good team. If the Williams duo is suspended though, I could see the Vikings losing at least 2 games. If the Bears can eek out two wins (One being against the Packers) they have a chance depending on what tie breaker is next (They’d be tied head to head, division)

Bears over Jaguars or “Yeah, it’s safe to say that the Jaguars have given up.”

There was talk last week of the Jaguars giving up on their coach and their season. Long time Veteran Fred Taylor came out and said that this was the worst team he had ever played on, and he didn’t mean talent wise. Somewhere, the chemistry of this team broke. It was horribly obvious early on. Receivers were dropping balls, running sloppy routes, secondary looking disinterested. No player not named Maurice Jones-Drew caught a pass for this team In the first half. It was downright ugly. By the way, the quitter label doesn’t apply to Jones-Drew. He plays hard on every down no matter what.

I read an article on the former Jaguars offensive line man Richard Collier. What a brutal, sad, turn of events. The Jaguars should know better than anyone not to sulk because they have lost a few ball games. Yeah, they’ve had a rough year, but I guarantee it’s better than the year their former teammate had. Go out, play hard, enjoy yourself. You never know if the next game you are going to play is your last.

I have often implored the Jaguars to run the ball, but I thought the play calling was on the bizarre side. It seemed like there was no middle ground. Run, Run, Run or Pass, Pass, Pass. Mix it up Del Rio! That’s the point. Try to keep the defense off balance!

The Devin Hester experiment might be progressing a little. He grabbed five balls for 80 yards to lead the team in receptions and yardage. Another player with five catches for this team? Matt Forte. Forte had a pretty rough day on the ground with the exception of breaking one nice run, but he can help his team in many ways. He is a fantastic fit for this team.

Statistical Notes – Maurice Jones-Drew went over 1000 total yards again and is on pace for a 1320 yard, 15 TD season which is nearly as good as his brilliant rookie year. Fred Taylor’s 53 yards wasn’t a supurb outing but it vaults him ahead of O.J. Simpson and Corey Dillon on the all time rushing leaders list. The only players above him are active, Hall of Famers, or Future hall of famers. Hmmmm. David Garrard has 7 more INT’s and 7 fewer TD’s than he had last season. Kyle Orton has as many INT’s in the last two games as he had the entire rest of the season. Matt Forte went over 100 total yards for the 10^th time in 13 games. He is on pace for 1800 yards. He also leads the team in receptions and touchdowns.

Vikings over Lions or “Barely avoiding humiliation.”

With the prospect of losing their two huge defensive tackles, Vikings fans had to breath a sigh of relief after Gosder Cherilus chopped at Jared Allen’s knees and sent Allen to the ground writhing in pain. This was a cheap shot no doubt, but Allen got up and started limping towards the player as if to attack him. His team mates held him back. As much as I respect Allen and understand that he was upset that the player took a shot as his livelihood, two wrongs do not make a right. Allen should not have gotten up (On a hurt knee, nonetheless) and stormed across the field threatening this player. The officials missed throwing a flag on the chop and missed throwing a flag on Allen’s charge.

The Lions moved the ball better than they have…but oh the chances they threw away! 1^st and goal from the 4, Field goal. 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 1 on the Vikings 30, Turnover on downs. 3^rd and 4 on the Vikings 5, Field goal. 4^th and 1 on the Vikings 6, Turnover on downs. You have to convert some of these short yardage downs and gets some points on the board! I do wonder why the Lions just have not gone to saying “Calvin Johnson, just go deep” on every play. That seems like a good strategy.

Gus Frerotte was injured in the game meaning the Vikings get turned back over to….Tarvaris Jackson. Maybe he learned a bit sitting on the sidelines because he actually looked really good. Of course, once Adrian Peterson started to take over in the second half its pretty easy to look good. Then again, Peterson is starting to make me a bit nervous. He put the ball on the ground 3 times again today. He has fumbled quite a bit this season (Luckily most of them have come back to him.) I ran some numbers on his fumbling percentage compared to other top backs early in the year and it was not so good.

Statistical Notes – Adrian Peterson ran for 100+ yards for the 8^th time this season. He’s on pace for nearly 1900 total yards. Jared Allen brought his sack total up to 12.5. Perhaps the time had come for change. Gus Frerotte threw his 12^th interception in only 7 games. Calvin Johnson went over 1000 yards for the year but only has 56 catches. That’s a hefty 18.7 Yards per reception. He has 9 TD catches, 5 of which are from 30+ yards. Kevin Smith was involved in the offense again. Ignoring the turkey day debacle he has yardage totals of 123, 135, 86, and 90 in recent games. The five Lions QB’s have been sacked a total of 45 times already.

Colts over Bengals or “Bengals WIN!!…..time of possession battle. Lose game by 32.”

Ugh. The Bengals are not very good. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both almost started to prance with glee when Palmer walked onto the field…until they realized it was Jesse. Oh boy. Did I ever mention that the Cowboys gave up something like a 1^st, 3^rd, and 5^th round pick for Roy Williams and probably could have been coaxed into a 1^st, 3^rd, and a 4^th or even better for Chad Johnson? A hard line attitude towards malcontents is good. So is circling the wagons, declaring a rebuilding period, and getting draft picks for them is better.

Forget last week’s apparition that was the Browns game, Peyton Manning is playing well. He’s been sort of forgotten about in our new Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler world…..but he’s coming on strong and is spreading the ball all over the place. The Broncos had better hope Champ Bailey Returns better than ever and can cover about three people because when the Colts walk into Invesco Field at Mile High on wildcard weekend, Manning will be licking his chops. Don’t count this team out of the Super Bowl equation.

Statistical Notes – Peyton Manning has 12 TD’s to only 3 INT’s in the last six games after starting 10 TDs/9INTs. The colts have 5 total turnovers in six games. The Colts defense has 24 sacks. Robert Mathis has 11.5, Dwight Freeney has 9.5. The rest of the team has 3. T.J. Housh has 7 or more catches in 8 of 13 games. Chad Johnson posted his season high of 79 yards. Three previous season highs: 217, 260, and 189. The Bengals offense was dropped behind the line 10 times (5 Sacks, 5 Rushes) in this game. Bengals QB’s have been sacked 48 times this season.

Eagles over Giants or “Not what I was expecting…..”

The Eagles have to be absolutely maddening for their fans and those that bet on games. Look dismal while tying the Bengals and getting blown out by the Ravens, Blow out the Cardinals and beat possibly the best team in the league. Beat the Steelers, lose to the Bears.

Of course, there is the Brian Westbrook effect. He hasn’t really been healthy all season but he’s finally healthy enough to play well. On his first touchdown, the Giants had about 9 players in the box as the Eagles had one wide receiver split out. Westbrook ran into a pile, sideslipped, and took off down for the score. Later In the game, Westbrook was lined up in the backfield with 3 wide. He saw Mathais Kiwanuka come off the corner and chipped him just enough to move him out of Mcnabb’s path. Not necessarily recognized as a receiver In this play, he ran a simple wheel route that Antonio Pierce was way too late to recognize. This system is designed in a way that sets Brian Westbrook up to succeed…no doubt… but he really plays the game “Smart” and does a lot of the little things well.

Of course, I don’t want to make it sound like Westbrook did it all himself. The Eagles offensive line was huge this game. They held the Giants brutal defense to just one sack and gave Mcnabb plenty of time to throw the ball.

After I spent recent weeks praising the Giants unheralded wide receiving corps for performing without Plaxico, they look terrible. Dominik Hixon let an easy touchdown go right through his hands. I’m not saying that Plaxico would have been there and made that catch but it sure makes you wonder if they will miss him in the post season. Even more troubling was Brandon Jacobs trying to limp off the field. Derrick Ward has been fantastic for the Giants this season but I like him in his third down type role while the bruiser works the area between the tackles. Losing a game isn’t a signal to panic but losing your two best offensive players makes things a little shaky.

For all the Eagles did right, those two blocked kicks were ridiculous and the one to end the half was especially costly. How you allow that much penetration on a short kick is beyond me. If the Eagles manage to avoid getting two 32 yard field goal tries blocked, they win 26-7 and aren’t quite as nervous in the end.

Statistical Notes – What a difference in perception those two nightmare games make. Without them Donovann Mcnabb would have 18 touchdowns to only 5 Interceptions, a brilliant season. Not that 19/10 is bad. The Fact is he is on pace for a 4000 yard season, 60% completions, 24 TD’s (+1 rushing), and 12 INT’s with an acceptable 7.1 Yards per attempt. Did I mention he gets booed? After not scoring or having 100 total yards since October 26^th, Brian Westbrook has 333 yards and 6 TD’s in the last two weeks. He’s over 1000 yards for the 5^th straight season and over 10 TD’s for the 3^rd straight. The Giants were held to their lowest (By 60+ yards) total of the season. They’ve been held to under 300 yards only 3 times. Eli Manning didn’t play that well but he did throw a touchdown for the 12^th straight week.

Saints over Falcons or “Are you ready for some offense?”

828 yards. 26 first downs. 54 points. One turnover. Zero sacks. Not much defense going on here. The Saints had their star QB on pace to break Dan Marino’s record, but two running backs stole the show…and neither is named Deuce Mccallister. It looks like they are phasing him out despite the reprieve from the (Seemingly unfair) drug policy suspension. He appears to have been replaced by Pierre Thomas who came up huge. I don’t know what to say about him. He doesn’t look fast, he doesn’t look shifty, he just gets it done. Not only did he provide 109 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns, he came up with a huge 88 yard kick return. Reggie Bush also looked explosive at times in limited carries. The two combined for 218 of the Saints 414 yards and scored 3 touchdowns.

The Falcon’s ground game has been pretty good and despite one good run and a touchdown, Michael Turner was locked down pretty well by the Saints defense. Matt Ryan’s first possession interception was certainly an amateur mistake, telegraphing the pass by staring at his target all the way giving the defense ample time to react. After that miscue, he was once again sparkling. The rapport he has developed with his receiving corps allows him to know what to expect out of them. The longest pass of the game came after Ryan scrambled for a few seconds and simply tossed the ball up towards Roddy White. It wasn’t a particularily good throw but White has come down with quite a few similar passes this season. Later, he threw a semi-fade to the towering Brian Finneran In the side of the end zone. With Finneran having a good five inches on his defender, as long as the ball was up high he would be the only one to have a shot at it.

One thing about Drew Brees and his passing yards is I have to wonder how many yards the ball has actually travelled through the air. Once again we saw plenty of yard after catch out of this crew. All of the significant games came on fairly short passes followed by a run. With as many targets out there as the Saints have, the field gets spread forcing a defender in single coverage to make the tackle or almost certainly give up a large gain.

Statistical Notes – Drew Brees is over 4000 yards for the third straight season. His 230 yard game was a major set back in the chase for Dan Marino, and he would need to average 328 yards per game over the last three games to tie him. Pierre Thomas has 428 yards and 6 touchdowns in the last four games. Reggie Bush’ 80 rushing yards marked his highest total for the season and third highest in his career. Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 207 yards in eight straight games. During that stretch, he has 10 TD’s to only 4 INT’s and has completed 63 percent of his passes or better 6 times. Roddy White had his 7^th 100 yard game of the season and took over as NFL receiving yards leader. He is on pace for 95 catches for 1534 yards.

Titans over Browns “Ken Dorsey led Browns or 1 loss Titans? Hardly a surprise.”

The Titans kept up with their winning formula. Run Chris Johnson right, Run Chris Johnson left, Run Lendale White up the middle. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. It really didn’t matter how many the Browns put in the box, the Titans offensive line is strong enough and Johnson (And to everyone’s surprise) White are shifty enough to find room to run. I remember two gains of 8+ yards, the Titans saw 8 in the box but Johnson was able to get into the secondary untouched. There were probably more.

Of course, the bruising running attack can open up other opportunities. In the first quarter down by 6 the Titans had the ball 4^th and 1 on the Browns’ 28. They lined up in a standard 1 formation with Lendale White back. They ran a play fake left with fullback Ahmard Hall leading the way. Hall acted like he was blocking until he got five yards off the line of scrimmage and took off running. The Browns defenders in the area were looking at Lendale White trying to figure out if he dropped the ball or ate it. By the time they realized they were duped, the fullback was catching the ball and heading for paydirt.

Ken Dorsey picked a bad week to get to start. The Browns offense was anemic, with only 3 plays over 10 yards. The Browns did try a little Josh Cribbs In the backfield, which I think is a great move. Cribbs is an dynamic player. I think this strategy may work better against a less intense defense.

I want to throw something out there a little wild. Everyone has some thoughts on MVP candidates. Clinton Portis, Albert Haynesworth, Kurt Warner, A player from the Giants…. I ask you this. What is the big difference between the 2007 Titans who barely made the playoffs at 10-6 while beating six teams with about 24 wins between them and the 2008 Titans? What is the difference between a team 22^nd in points, 21^st In yards, 17^th in first downs, 20^th in Yards per pass and 21^st in yards per rush and this years team: 6^th in points, 13^th in yards per pass, and 12 in yards per rush? Kerry Collins? Maybe…although Collins should finish the season with a lower completion % and about as many yards as Vince Young did last year (no doubt the turnovers have helped.)

I’m thinking that the Titans Largest need by far on offense was a playmaker. Someone who could break a few big ones a game. A guy they could count on to touch the ball a lot. Chris Johnson resembles that guy to me. With all due respect to Lendale White (And yes, I know he has a longer run this year than Chris Johnson) who shouldered the load fantastically last season and has played his role well this year, I can’t see the Titans having been as successful on offense without him. He doesn’t have eye popping numbers, but I think he’s every bit as valuable to his team as anyone else is to any other team.

 

Statistical Notes – Chris Johnson had his 4^th 100 yard rushing performance of the year and went over 1000 yards on the season. He is on pace for nearly 1700 total yards. Lendale White went over 100 total yards for the second game In a row and scored his 14^th touchdown which ties him for the league lead. Kerry Collins threw 2 INT’s, twice the number he has thrown in the past 7 games. Braylon Edwards 3 catches vaulted him in front of Kellen Winslow to become the season reception leader for the Browns…with 45 . The Browns have not scored an offensive touchdown in three straight games. They have 21 total points and 611 yards in that span.

Dolphins over Bills or “Bills players conspire to ensure Toronto does not want them.”

The Bills “Home Game” in what could someday be their new permanent home of Toronto was absolutely embarrassing. The Dolphins defense dominated the Bills offense, holding them to a meager 163 yards of total offense. The Bills averaged 24 points per game over the first six games of the season but have put up only six total points in the last two outings. The Dolphins and 49ers are hardly defensive powers, either. And to think! Dick Jauron just signed a huge contract extension.

I don’t know if I like the musical chairs game the Bills are playing with their QB’s. I know Trent Edwards is supposedly “Hurt” but it seems more like a demotion. J.P. Losman has been with this team for five seasons. If they have not seen anything they are sure of by now, I don’t think they will. The season is lost and Edwards barely has a full year’s worth of games under his belt. If you are going to try to develop a quarterback, stick with him and allow some continuity.

The Dolphins offense wasn’t explosive but it got the job done. The Bills pass rush was non-existent and Chad Pennington absolutely thrives in this type of situation. I am not sure there are any quarterbacks in the NFL as ACCURATE as Pennington when given time to sit back in the pocket. That’s not to say he’s a great QB with a huge arm, but he can very much manage a game. I think this team is going to the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Davone Bess suddenly has 20 catches for 245 yards in the last two games. He’s a small quick receiver with some speed. He’s like Tedd Ginn, only cheaper and better. Ronnie Brown is close to hitting 1000 total yards. Chad Pennington is on pace for 3766 yards, easily his best season in terms of passing yards. The Dolphins had their third turnover free game. In the other Ten games, they had a single turnover in each. Joey Porter racked up 2 more sacks to bring his season total to 16.5. His previous high? 10.5. He has at least one sack in 11 of 13 games. Marshawn Lynch had an excellent three week run snapped by getting only 14 carries. He’s on pace for over 1400 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Josh Reed has gotten more involved, with 5 catches each of the last three games with yardage totals of 50, 58, and 58. How’s that for consistency?

49ers over Jets or “Uhhh, wasn’t Favre supposed to just be a game manager?”

Despite the fact that the Bills had posted a season high 153 rushing yards on the 49ers last week and despite the fact that their team’s resurgence has come not through the air, but on the ground, the Jets coaching staff decided to take the ball from Thomas Jones and put it in the hands of Brett Favre. The Jets called Thomas Jones’ number only 10 times on Sunday despite his averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry on those limited touches. Why? Despite early season success, Lavernious Coles and Jerricho Cotchery have not been getting open and have been dropping balls. This is a team that counts on it’s running backs to make plays and they chose to keep the ball away from them. On Sunday, the Jets averaged 4.9 yards per rushing play and 3.6 yards per passing play.

This poor play calling led to only 10 first downs which of course, led to a serious differential in time of possession. The more balanced 49ers offense managed to stay on the field for nearly 40 minutes. Even after Frank Gore went down, the San Fran continued to be committed to the run with Deshon Foster.

The 49ers offensive line played well. As a unit that has given up like 800 sacks the last few seasons I have to say I can remember about 4 occasions out of the 40 pass plays where Shaun Hill was flushed from the pocket. Most of the game he was kept insulted. The schemes even kept Jets blitzers from getting through. On many plays, 49ers receivers were absolutely wide open. Shaun Hill played well, but he was put in a situation where he was almost sure to succeed.

Penalties were a big problem for the Jets on Sunday but one in particular looms large. Explosive Leon Washington weaved through defenders 99 yards on a kick return. This play could have changed the game drastically. Here comes the flag and it’s coming back. Do not hold/block in the back on special teams. You will likely get caught and a potential game breaker can be denied.

Statistical notes – Thomas Jones has now scored in seven straight games. Brett Favre is 43/74 for 384 yards with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s and 5.2 yards per attempt in the last two games (both losses). Isaac Bruce has 19 catches in the last three games for 262 yards and 2 TDs. Shaun Hill has 10 touchdowns and 4 INT’s. No QB since Jeff Garcia has thrown more Touchdowns than Interceptions for the 49ers.

Patriots over Seahawks or “A Seneca Wallace vs. Matt Cassell Shootout. Decidedly not what was expected on this day.”

With both their veteran QB’s that had career seasons last year sidelined, we were treated to Seneca Wallace against Matt Cassell….and dare I say it was a treat! I know that a lot of people lack faith in Seneca Wallace, no doubt due to the ever growing roll call of failed “Athletic” quarterbacks: Michael Vick, Kordell Stewart, Vince Young, Tarvaris Jackson, Aaron Brooks, Byron Leftwich… Sometimes we forget the ones that have succeed such as Steve Young, Randal Cunningham, Donovan Mcnabb, and Steve Mcnair. Wallace has had the benefit of watching a quarterback with good mechanics and being taught by a coach known for developing passers.

Not that there was much to say about the defense in this game, how come teams seem to completely forget about Wes Welker every game? Out of his 12 receptions, Wes Welker produced 8 first downs….five of them on third down. Defensive coordinators! Make sure someone knows where Wes Welker is on third down! Randy Moss may be the hall of famer but Welker is the one moving the chains for this team!

I give Bill Bellichick a lot of credit for what he has done with his team over the years. No doubt. I do wonder why it appears that he has not learned anything from last season. As the weather got colder, the high flying offense slowed down a bit. It didn’t hurt them so bad because of how strong their team was, but they aren’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. Once again, the weather is getting colder and the Patriots can’t run the ball and are not making much of an effort to do so. Running backs took handoffs a mere 17 times out of 72 plays. They are going to have to mix it up a bit if they expect to beat the Steelers or Titans in the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Rookie Tight End John Carlson is really turning into a force and has 14 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown the last two games. Seneca Wallace has 7 TD’s and 0 INT’s in four games (120 pass attempts). Wes Welker is on pace to put up better numbers than last season (118 catches to 112 and 1250 yards to 1175). He has gone over 100 yards in four of five games. Randy Moss became the 11^th player in NFL history to gain 13,000 receiving yards.

Steelers over Cowboys or “Steelers fans rush to doctors for Sunday Valium Scripts”

The Steelers cut it close again. As with the Chargers game, they don’t move the ball too well all game and manage to come up with a lot of points in the last few minutes (I still consider the Chargers game to be 18-10…not 11-10). Having put up 3 points on 103 yards late into the third quarter, they manufacture a long drive and find themselves with a 3^rd and goal on the one. Incomplete, loss of three, turnover on downs. They get the ball back down by 10 with 8 minutes to play. 6 minutes and 17 points later, they lead by 7.

The Steelers offense was just ugly in this outing. 13 Points from the offense despite getting the ball on their own forty or better 8 times and on the right side of the fifty 5 times. By the numbers they were 3/16 on third down, 1 for 4 in the red zone, allowed 5 sacks, and averaged only 3.7 yards per offensive play. Luckily, their defense is so utterly dominant that it can keep them I games.

The Cowboys offense was also pretty bad. Tony Romo had a terrible game. His three interceptions were ugly. The first he threw into an area occupied by about five Steelers and two Cowboys. On the second was on a stop and go by Terrell Owens. Tony Romo watched Owens the whole way, making an unconvincing pump fake on the stop and pulling back as he threw the ball. Owens had no chance on it. The final devastating pick came late in the fourth quarter. He was pressured and threw to an area with no Cowboy in sight. Pick Six. Game over. Commence finger pointing. Jerry Jones calling out Marion Barber for not playing on Sunday, Tony Romo yelling at his offensive line, and Terrell Owens yelling at everyone. With the NFC South teams playing so well the Cowboys had best get it together if they expect to make it to the post season.

Statistical Notes – Unheralded running back Terrence Choice had 166 total yards on Sunday. The Cowboys had 289 as a team. In six weeks as a Cowboy, Roy Williams is averaging 2 catches for 30 yards. Terrell Owens has scored in four of the last five games. Demarcus Ware picked up his 16^th sack of the season. Troy Palamalu has an interception in four straight games. Pittsburgh’s defense has forced 10 turnovers in two games. After throwing 8 picks in a three week stretch, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown zero in four games.

Texans over Packers or “Anology. Packers:4^th Quarter Lead. Plaxico: Gun in Sweatpants.”

The Packers really cannot stop anybody. For the fourth time in six weeks they completed melted down at the end of the game. People can talk about Brett Favre until they are blue in the face, but tumbling from the 6^th ranked defense to the 23^rd is what truly has caused their downfall. After a holding penalty brought a 9 yard run to the Texans 13 back to the 32^nd and a 9 yard sack, the Packers were forced to punt with the game tied. They pinned the Texans on their own 3 with 1:49 remaning in regulation. 8 plays and 75 yards later, Kris Brown got onto to the field and finished them off. The Texans even gave the ball away after drives of 79 and 71 yards or the Texans would have routed the Packers.

Early in the game, I was a little dismayed with the Packers play calling. Apparently it was decided that they could beat the Texans deep and Mike Mccarthy had Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball long. This really hasn’t been a successful strategy for the Packers. 8 of the Packers 19 rushes came on 3 drives, leaving the other 9 drives with 11 rushes. What did the three “Run Heavy” drives have in common? They produced the three Packers touchdowns.

With Matt Schaub back the Texans offense is operating on all cylinders. They are putting up Gobs of yardage but not so many points. They do need to avoid the turnovers. They have a good core of offensive skill position players (Shaub when healthy, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Walter.) I believe they can make some noise if they can keep that group together. They are 6-3 after an 0-4 start where they played the Titans, Steelers, and Colts who are a combined 31-7.

Statistical Notes – The Texans had less than 355 yards only once since week 4. Kevin Walter has 445 yards and 3 TD’s in the last five games. Andre Johnson is on pace for 113 catches for 1500 yards. Steve Slaton had his 6^th 100+ total yard game and is on pace for 1600+ total yards and 11 TD’s. The Packers defense has allowed 20 or more first downs 8 times this season. They are 2-6 in those games. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 2 or 3 TD’s in 8 games and for 250+ yards in 6. He is on pace for 3950 yards, 28 TD’s and 13 INT’s. Greg Jennings has 23 catches for 339 yards and 3 TD’s the last four games. Green Bay has only 21 sacks on the year. Aaron Kampmann has 9.5 of them, leaving 11.5 for the rest of the team!

Panthers over Buccanneers or “Deangelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart replace boogey man in Tampa area children’s nightmares.”

I made it to the Super Bowl in my 14 team league. My opponent for the next week was hanging In the balance. My best friend was losing his matchup by 48 points. The scoring system is 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, 7 points for a touchdown. I went to watch the game with him to give moral support. He has a great team but I knew his season was over with only Antonio Bryant and Deangelo Williams left to play. He would need something like 100 yards and 2 TD’s out of each to win. He was strangely calm about it and kept telling me how he was going to crush me in the Super Bowl next week. Yup. He was in Denial.

He uhm, ended up winning by 16. He was going absolutely berserk. It was a great time. Next week we’ll be mortal enemies, with a ton of pride, my perfect fantasy season (I’m 14-0. Seriously. ) and the greater share of the $1100+ pool on the line. That Monday we were 8 year old kids jumping up and down and yelling at a bar where nobody else was paying attention to the game. It was Fantasy Football at its finest.

Now that the personal aside is over, I’ll get back to the game. What incredible individual efforts out of Jeff Garcia, Bryant, Williams, Steve Smith, and Jonathon Stewart. Although the game ended with a sizeable margin of victory for the Panthers, I think the seeds were sewn early for the Bucs loss. First, after a nine minute drive, Matt Bryant who has missed only 2 field goals inside of 50 yards bounced a 40 yarder off the uprights. On the Bucs next possession, they found themselves with a 1^st and goal at the Panthers 2 yard line. A drop on first down by Alex Smith and a drop on third down by Jeremy Stevens after some brilliant scrambling by Jeff Garcia led to 4^th down and the Bucs took the field goal. I can see why Garcia chose to go to Bryant all day after those plays.

I do wonder why Jon Gruden didn’t commit to running three straight times at that point. The Panthers run defense has been good but not spectacular this season. The Bucs are a better team when running the ball. In the 4 losses this season, they have averaged 42.5 passing plays. Taking away the bizarre Bears game where they called 67 pass plays, They averaged 27.5 passing plays in their 8 victories (32 passing plays with the Bears game). Why mess with what works?

The last time these teams played, the Panthers turned Jake Delhomme “Loose” on the Bucs having him throw 39 times. Deangelo Williams and Stewart ran the ball 17 times for only 39 yards. They’ve been running wild since then and stuck with it. The Bucs defense has been pretty solid this season and they just looked silly. They were blown off the line and then juked or run over by the Panthers duo. As the game wore on so did the Bucs and it seemed every time the Panthers handed off, they were going to gain at least 10 yards.

I thought about this game later in the context of a possible playoff matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I thought for sure the Giants would roll through the playoffs but now I am not sure. The Eagles and Brian Westbrook shredded New York despite not being really strong running the ball recently. The Panthers could be much worse. They are vulnerable to a dominant receiver taking the game over as was demonstrated, but the Giants’ dominant receiver is heading to prison. How large will Plaxico’s problems loom if the Panthers end up playing the Giants?

Statistical Notes – In his first 75 games, Antonio Bryant had 7 100 yard games. In 12 games this season with Tampa, he has 4. Since taking his job back, Jeff Garcia has 8 touchdowns and a single interception in 251 attempts. 10 Buccanneers have an interception. 6 have more than one. Deangelo Williams has now scored in 7 straight games. He has 854 yards and 12 TD’s in that span and is averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry. NOTE: When I said Lendale White was tied for the lead in total touchdowns with 14 I had written it before this game. Williams has 15. Despite missing 2 games to start the season, Steve Smith is fifth in receiving yards with 1075. He has 3 straight 100 yard games and 6 in the last 8. Jake Delhomme is averaging 165 yards per game and has 4 TDs and 6 INTs in the last five games.

Carnage Guesses On games.

 

Last week I rocked with a 12-4 record. I don’t know why I didn’t pick the Panthers. That puts me at 129-73 on the year. Remember, this is straight up, not against the spread.

Chargers over Raiders

Bears over Jaguars

Vikings over Lions

Packers of Texans

Colts over Bengals

Saints over Falcons

Giants over Eagles

Titans over Browns

Dolphins over Rams

Pats over Seahawks

Cardinals over Rams

Ravens over Redskins

Bucs over Panthers

Crazy Upset Duo: Chiefs over Broncos and 49ers over Jets

Let’s see what we have next week. I look at the lines to declare crazy upset picks (They are five or more point underdogs). I was actually surprised to see the Ravens and even moreso….the COWBOYS as favorites. If I were a gambling man…..I get the Giants and three points? You are kidding! It’s at Dallas and the Giants are coming off a loss and may be without Brandon Jacobs…but the Cowboys are in complete disarray!

Saints over Bears

Falcons over Bucs

Redskins over Bengals

Titans over Texans

Packers over Jaguars

Dolphins over 49ers

Rams over Seahawks

Chargers over Chiefs

Colts over Lions

Cardinals over Vikings

Panthers over Broncos

Patriots over Raiders

Giants over Cowboys

Eagles over Browns

Ravens over Steelers

Crazy Upset pick – Bills over Jets

See you next week when we are 7/8ths done with the season. Yikes!

Browns Dinged

FYI guys, the Browns QB Brady Quinn is looking to play this week with a bum finger and TE Kellen Winslow has a dinged up shoulder. I would sit both those guys this week but what do I know I’m just an intern.

Trio’s Trio: Week 11 Edition.

Yeah I know, a new segment started at the last quarter of the season. Trio’s Trio will be anything but ordinary. Topics, suggestions and content could be from the realm of all sports to entertainment, or from politics, food, or shopping (who knows). Well here goes.

Trio’s Trio: Three’s in set of 3.

Top 3 Not-so-ordinary Must plays for the Week!

1. WR Glen Camarillo (Miami): Chad Pennington should have a field day versus Oakland and DiGiCam will be the man.
2. QB Tyler Thigpen (Kansas City): Overall Thiggy pop has been statistically sound Fanasty Football wise so why should that change versus a New Orleans squad with an identity issue?
3. RB Ronnie Brown (Miami): I know 2 Dolphins in one sitting. Brown will out-Wildcat the Mcfaddenless Raiders. Could get ugly folks!

Top 3 Games:

1. NY Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens
2. Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

3 Bold Predicitions:

1. Earnest Graham will outscore opponent Adrian Peterson in standard scoring leagues.
2. 3 Teams will score 40+ points this week.
3. Either Jake Delhomme or Donovan McNabb will throw 4 TD’s in a victory.

Until next week…

The Stallworth Watch! Week 9

Saved by zero, saved by zero.

Thats right, Stallworth gets a goose egg for the week.

Season stats-   7 receptions 56 yards 1 TD

Bet: Stallworth would not accumulate a grand total of 47 receptions and 8 TD
I’m well ahead for that 12 pack!

Matt Forte: Future Stud.

Can’t believe I passed on this guy in one of my Dynasty Leagues. But as promised to a former co-worker I will acknowledge on here that he appear to be a future stud in waiting. Forte has actually been one of the top fantasy backfield options over the last 3 weeks and he appear to in position to stay one most of the way out of da’ Bears 2008 campaign.

Now with a current a co-worker to whom I stated Dont’e Stallworth (WR/ Cleveland) was overrated I will start a post that will track a bet made between the two of us. I say Stallworth will not exceed 47 receptions and 8 TD’s while he feel DS will garner over 50 and 10! FYI: a 12 pack is on the line.

Week 3 Fantasy. Who to Start? Who to Bench?

 

Looking for some last minute advice on who to put into your lineup? Aren’t sure which flex player to choose? I’m here to drop some names of players I think will outperform or underperform general expectations. Here we go.

QB’s to Start:

1. Jake Delhomme – I like Jake Delhomme this week. Even with Deangelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart the Panthers will be hard pressed to run on The Vikings…which means pass, pass, pass. Oh yeah, the Panthers get that Steve Smith guy back and he has something to prove.
2. J.T. O’Sullivan – The Lions are in a bad way defensively. They let a guy with 0 starts complete 10/13 passes with a long touchdowns. They let a guy with 1 start pass for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Sullivan proved he can put up numbers and he’ll do it again this week.
3. Jon Kitna – And of course, Kitna will be out throwing the ball all over the place. The 49ers held both Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner to under 200 yards, but Warner was brutally efficient and Hasselbeck was throwing to guys we never heard of. This should be a high scoring affair.
4. Eli Manning – He’s probably turning into a must start every week, but I figured I’d toss him on here anyway. Giants play the Bengals. Nuff said.

QB’s to Sit:

1. Derek Anderson – Going into Baltimore with the team struggling, I think Derek Anderson will have another below average week. The good news for Anderson owners? They get the Bengals next week.
2. Carson Palmer – Bench Palmer until this team can prove they can do…well…anything. They are playing a Giants defense that seems to be feasting on poor teams and that trend will continue.
3. Tony Romo – Jason Witten will not be 100% and I really think the physical man coverage that Al Harris plays will check T.O. better than most. I see the Cowboys running the ball more this week and not putting up 40.
4. Matt Schaub – I like Schaub overall, but the Titans defense is playing as good as anyone. Let him ride pine one more week.

RB’s to Start:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew – The Jaguars are going to be trying to keep Peyton Manning and company off of the field. Bob Sanders is out, and MoJo typically plays well against the Colts. He has 100 total yards and a TD this week.
2. Michael Turner – Run-DMC and Michael Bush are still prancing through the Chiefs secondary. Seriously, they went untouched for 10 yards on quite a few plays. Expect the same out of Turner.
3. Kevin Smith – The 49ers let Julius Jones run for 120+ yards despite knowing that the Seahawks passing attack was crippled. If the Lions coaching staff decides to run more than 10 times, Smith should have a good game.
4. Reggie Bush – I like Bush to be involved in a lot of aspects of the offense. The Broncos are going to put up points and the Saints will be looking for big plays to match. I say 100 total yards and a TD is very likely.

RB’s to Sit:

1. Larry Johnson – Larry Johnson owners are looking to be in trouble. With the Chiefs being led by Tyler Thigpen, Johnson will see a lot of 8-9 in the box. Truthfully, for those that dumped a first round pick on the guy, I feel for you but it may be time to look for another starter and use LJ only for good matchups and only when Huard or Croyle come back.
2. Jonathon Stewart/Deangelo Williams – As I said before, I expect the Panthers to pass on the Vikings instead of trying to grind it out on a team that allowed 20 yards on 15 Joseph Addai carries. Stewart fans will be happy with their player this season…just not this week.
3. Earnest Graham – I love Graham. He’s a tough guy and is averaging a bloated 8.3 YPC. However, the Bears stifled Joseph Addai and besides three runs that Jonathon Stewart broke, held the Panthers pretty well in check. Oh yeah. Jon Gruden for some reason has only gotten the ball into Graham’s hands 25 times in two games.
4. Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown – New England has been pretty tough on runners and the Dolphins running game hasn’t been much to write home about.

    

WR’s to Start:

1. Tory Holt – The Seahawks defense is better than numbers show, but if J.T. O’Sullivan can light it up with 36 year old Isaac Bruce, I think Holt can find some room. Marcus Trufant looked lazy and confused and was torched by Bruce despite the defense making O’Sullivan eat dirt all week.
2. Jerricho Cotchery/Lavernious Coles – The Chargers defense didn’t convince me they could cover anyone after Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and the Broncos lit them up. I think the absence of Shaun Merriman will give Favre the time he needs to find his talented guys downfield.
3. Lee Evans – If Tyler Thigpen can help a wideout get 90 yards against the Raiders, surging Trent Edwards should be able to get some balls to Lee Evans
4. Santonio Holmes – I think the Eagles will put up some points on the Steelers forcing them to throw. Asante Samuel should be able to help lock down Hines Ward leaving Holmes some chances to get the ball in his hands.

    

WR’s to Sit:

1. Ocho Cinco and T.J. Housh – Along with Carson Palmer, I’m sitting these guys until they show me something.
2. Anthony Gonzalez – The Secret is out, Peyton Manning likes throwing to this guy. I think he’ll draw more attention than Marvin Harrison this week, leaving the veteran to reap the benefits from the passing game.
3. Braylon Edwards – A tougher than expected Ravens defense and Anderson’s diminishing faith in his #1 wideouts ability to drop the ball tells me he sees fewer looks.
4. Roddy White – The only part of the Cheifs game that has looked ok is their pass defense. Despite the week 1 performance, the Falcons are still starting a rookie QB, and Michael Turner romping all over the field will result in fewer looks for the wideout.

    

TE’s to Start:

1. Tony Schaeffler – The Broncos offense is rolling, as is Shaeffler. I’d start him over Gonzales this week.
2. Owen Daniels – With Schaub facing a good pass rush by the Titans, he’s not going to have time to get downfield. I expect him to check down to Daniels quite a few times.

 

TE’s to Sit:

1. Tony Gonzales – Ok, the guy is hard to sit, but I can’t stress the problems with the Chiefs offense enough. If you have another legitimate options (Which probably isn’t likely) sit Gonzo.
2. Greg Olson – Olson’s two fumbles in two catches has to have the Bear’s confidence waning. Olson is a high round pick, but Tight End looks might go to Desmond Clark as this point.

 

 

Bengals: Chris Henry (WR)

The headcase finds his way back into the NFL.

Per CBS Sportsline: CINCINNATI — With their two Pro Bowl receivers hurt, the Cincinnati Bengals brought back troubled receiver Chris Henry on Tuesday, a move that their coach had emphatically ruled out only a month earlier as inappropriate.

The signing helps the team but raises questions about its commitment to holding players accountable for their actions. Henry must serve a four-game suspension from the NFL — his third such punishment — before he can fully rejoin the team.

The move was stunning in light of Lewis’ statement shortly before training camp opened that the team had permanently parted ways with the receiver, who has been arrested five times since he joined the Bengals. Henry had indicated he was interested in rejoining Cincinnati.

“I’m not interested,” Lewis said at the team’s annual preseason luncheon on July 22. “I don’t think it would be productive for our football team. You have to be a productive part to be an NFL player, and there’s responsibilities to being an NFL player. It’s a privilege, it’s not a right. There’s a lot that comes with being an NFL football player.”

The Bengals evidently feel differently after Chad Johnson sprained his left shoulder during a 27-10 preseason loss to Detroit on Sunday night, leaving his status uncertain. T.J. Houshmandzadeh has missed both preseason games with a hamstring injury as well.

The Bengals released Henry after he was accused of punching a college student and breaking his car window with a beer bottle in March. Bengals president Mike Brown also cut ties with Henry, saying he could no longer be with the team.

Pro Bono Outlook: Henry may actually hold a bit of Fantasy value as he does already kow the teams system and should be able to step right in and provide a slight contribution to the banged up wideouts in Cincy.