Carnage’s Long and Boring Wild Card Weekend Preview!

The real season is about to begin and never before has the opening playoff weekend looked so bizarre. When you think 5^th and 6^th seed you think of teams that just got a little lucky near the end of the season and won a few games, backing into the playoffs. When you think 3^rd (And to a lesser degree, 4^th) seed you usually think of a powerhouse that won its division and was a game or two away from having a first round bye and possible home field throughout.

Not so this year. Our 3^rd seeds are the 11-5 Dolphins who didn’t clinch a playoff berth until the last game of the season and the 10-6 Minnesota Vikings who are led by a young Quarterback that isn’t really known for his consistency. Our 4^th seeds are the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals, a team that has defined inept for most of its history and comes limping into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 6 and being outscored 198-138 in the process and the 8-8 San Diego Chargers, a team that was 4-8 and left for dead a month ago. A team that doesn’t even have a winning record and won the weakest division in football. A team with two of the superstars, Antonio Gates and Ladainian Tomlinson, questionable for wild card weekend.

On the flipside, I present our 6^th seeds. First we have a brutal 11-5 Ravens team. About those five losses, they were to the 13-3 Titans, 12-4 Giants, 12-4 Colts, and 12-4 Steelers Twice. The three losses to the Steelers and Titans were by a combined 10 points. They sport a defense that gave up 13 or fewer points 11 times and are really only overshadowed by the Steelers. Second we have a 9-6-1 Eagles team with a lot of talent. They have not given up 300 yards of offense since week 10 and feature perhaps the most versatile running back in the game, Brian Westbrook, who is looking like a world beater now that he’s healthy. They just demolished “star-studded” Dallas 44-6. The fifth seeds include a couple of decent squads too. First the 12-4 Colts led by a guy you may have heard of. You know, the guy who earned his third MVP this season? This team has won nine straight and are welcoming back Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders, important members of their defense. Next we have the 11-5 Falcons, 7-2 down the stretch. Michael Turner runs as hard as anyone and Matt Ryan has played like a veteran.

This brings me to the point. Probably for the first time ever, no home team is drawing the favorite line on the opening weekend of the playoffs. The closest we get is the Cardinals getting a “Pick-Em” hosting the Falcons. The Chargers are 1 point dawgs and the Dolphins and Vikings are each getting 3. Do I agree? See Below.

Falcons (11-5) at Cardinals (9-7):

I like the Cardinals. I really do. They have been fun to watch. I have been all over Kurt Warner as the MVP of all three of my fantasy leagues this year. The problem? The defense is wavering bad. Especially the run defense. The Patriots, Eagles, and Vikings exposed this particular flaw very convincingly late in the season, with the Cardinals allowing an average of 204 yards on the ground in those four brutal losses. Who comes into town? The Falcons, a team that would love to give Michael Turner about 200 carries this weekend. The Cardinals offense will not get enough time on the field and the defense will become more and more worn out as the day progresses.

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

Eagles (9-6-1) at Vikings (10-6):

A defense that is 13^th in points allowed and 6^th in yards allowed against a defense that is 3^rd in yards allowed and 4^th in points allowed. You are likely to hear all about the Vikings defense, Jared Allen, and the Williams wall but the Eagles defense is the one to look at. They have better overall numbers than the Vikings against a tougher schedule. The run defense of the Vikings is often talking about, giving up 3.3 yards per carry, but the Eagles are only giving up 3.5 YPC themselves. The pass rush of the Vikings is talked of, producing 45 sacks. The Eagles produced 48. The Eagles have a savvy veteran leading it’s balanced offense. The Vikings have an unknown quantity. Adrian Peterson is fantastic but so is the more Versatile Brian Westbrook, who happens to fumble a whole lot less. The Vikings pass defense is a little shaky and Donovan Mcnabb can spread the ball around the field. The Eagles simply are just as good on defense, and significantly more balanced on offense.

Verdict: Eagles win Handily

Ravens (11-5) at Dolphins (11-5):

The Dolphins have beaten 2 teams with winning records. The Patriots in week 3 when they were still getting used to that Matt Cassell thing and the wildcat took everyone by surprise, and the flailing Jets in week 17. The Ravens have been socking it out against better teams and really have some attitude and talent on defense. They are giving up just over 10 points per game the last 6 weeks. I don’t see how the Dolphins can move the ball on them. Chad Pennington is capable, but not fantastic. The Wildcat was different and took a lot of people by surprise, but it takes more than gimmicks to deal with the physical nature of the Ravens. The Ravens won’t have an easy time moving It but Leron Mclain will slowly pound the ball towards the end zone and produce some points. This should be a low scoring affair unless Pennington floats one too many towards Ed Reed.

Verdict: Ravens Win

Colts (12-4) at Chargers (8-8)

I’m going to qualify this with a larger prediction. The Colts are going to the Super Bowl. Usually I prefer a team with a more solid defense but Peyton Manning appears to be on a mission. During the Colts current 9 game winning streak he has 17 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. He’s dipped under 71.4% completion percentage only twice (65.4 and 52.5). The Colts defense has stepped up and allowed only 15 points per game during that span. 15 points isn’t going to get it done with Peyton Manning on the other side. The Chargers are on a hot streak having beaten the Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos (Yawn) down the stretch to get to .500. Ladainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates got banged up on the way. The Colts on the other hand are getting healthy. Darren Sproles is a fine player but he is no Tomlinson or (like last year) Michael Turner. Philip Rivers is looking to be a great one, but he’s not getting to round 2 with this supporting cast.

Verdict: The Colts Win, Handily

Yup. I’m going with the favorites. I think they are all fairly obvious. I can’t see any of the home teams winning. I really can’t. Sorry. If you are a fan of one of those teams though, take heart. My predictions during the season have not been all that impressive (160-96 straight up) and I’ll probably miss on at least two of these. Until next week, enjoy the start of the playoffs.