Week 14 of the season has come and gone. Three games left. Three teams have clinched division titles (Titans, Giants, and Cardinals.) If your team is done like mine, don’t fret. There is plenty of interesting races going down yet. Let’s take a quick look at some of them.
AFC East:
New York Jets (8-5). Remaining games are Bills, at Seahawks, Dolphins
New England Patriots (8-5). At Raiders, Cardinals, at Bills
Miami Dolphins (8-5). 49ers, at Chiefs, at Jets
Boy, this one is tough to call. The Jets went from looking like the team to beat to…well…losing to the Broncos and 49ers. All of these teams have reasonably easy schedules. I say that Miami wins outright at 11-5 with the others going 10-6.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3). At Ravens, at Titans, Browns
Baltimore Ravens (9-4). Steelers, at Cowboys, Jaguars
Both teams have the right to claim impressive records considering their schedules. Ouch. Next week will be one physical matchup. I favor the Steelers eve with their inability to protect their QB.
NFC North:
Minnesota Vikings (8-5). AT Cardinals, Falcons, Giants
Chicago Bears (7-6). Saints, Packers, at Texans
I think the Bears have one win left I them and that is about it. I am not convinced that they are a good team. If the Williams duo is suspended though, I could see the Vikings losing at least 2 games. If the Bears can eek out two wins (One being against the Packers) they have a chance depending on what tie breaker is next (They’d be tied head to head, division)
Bears over Jaguars or “Yeah, it’s safe to say that the Jaguars have given up.”
There was talk last week of the Jaguars giving up on their coach and their season. Long time Veteran Fred Taylor came out and said that this was the worst team he had ever played on, and he didn’t mean talent wise. Somewhere, the chemistry of this team broke. It was horribly obvious early on. Receivers were dropping balls, running sloppy routes, secondary looking disinterested. No player not named Maurice Jones-Drew caught a pass for this team In the first half. It was downright ugly. By the way, the quitter label doesn’t apply to Jones-Drew. He plays hard on every down no matter what.
I read an article on the former Jaguars offensive line man Richard Collier. What a brutal, sad, turn of events. The Jaguars should know better than anyone not to sulk because they have lost a few ball games. Yeah, they’ve had a rough year, but I guarantee it’s better than the year their former teammate had. Go out, play hard, enjoy yourself. You never know if the next game you are going to play is your last.
I have often implored the Jaguars to run the ball, but I thought the play calling was on the bizarre side. It seemed like there was no middle ground. Run, Run, Run or Pass, Pass, Pass. Mix it up Del Rio! That’s the point. Try to keep the defense off balance!
The Devin Hester experiment might be progressing a little. He grabbed five balls for 80 yards to lead the team in receptions and yardage. Another player with five catches for this team? Matt Forte. Forte had a pretty rough day on the ground with the exception of breaking one nice run, but he can help his team in many ways. He is a fantastic fit for this team.
Statistical Notes – Maurice Jones-Drew went over 1000 total yards again and is on pace for a 1320 yard, 15 TD season which is nearly as good as his brilliant rookie year. Fred Taylor’s 53 yards wasn’t a supurb outing but it vaults him ahead of O.J. Simpson and Corey Dillon on the all time rushing leaders list. The only players above him are active, Hall of Famers, or Future hall of famers. Hmmmm. David Garrard has 7 more INT’s and 7 fewer TD’s than he had last season. Kyle Orton has as many INT’s in the last two games as he had the entire rest of the season. Matt Forte went over 100 total yards for the 10th time in 13 games. He is on pace for 1800 yards. He also leads the team in receptions and touchdowns.
Vikings over Lions or “Barely avoiding humiliation.”
With the prospect of losing their two huge defensive tackles, Vikings fans had to breath a sigh of relief after Gosder Cherilus chopped at Jared Allen’s knees and sent Allen to the ground writhing in pain. This was a cheap shot no doubt, but Allen got up and started limping towards the player as if to attack him. His team mates held him back. As much as I respect Allen and understand that he was upset that the player took a shot as his livelihood, two wrongs do not make a right. Allen should not have gotten up (On a hurt knee, nonetheless) and stormed across the field threatening this player. The officials missed throwing a flag on the chop and missed throwing a flag on Allen’s charge.
The Lions moved the ball better than they have…but oh the chances they threw away! 1st and goal from the 4, Field goal. 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 1 on the Vikings 30, Turnover on downs. 3rd and 4 on the Vikings 5, Field goal. 4th and 1 on the Vikings 6, Turnover on downs. You have to convert some of these short yardage downs and gets some points on the board! I do wonder why the Lions just have not gone to saying “Calvin Johnson, just go deep” on every play. That seems like a good strategy.
Gus Frerotte was injured in the game meaning the Vikings get turned back over to….Tarvaris Jackson. Maybe he learned a bit sitting on the sidelines because he actually looked really good. Of course, once Adrian Peterson started to take over in the second half its pretty easy to look good. Then again, Peterson is starting to make me a bit nervous. He put the ball on the ground 3 times again today. He has fumbled quite a bit this season (Luckily most of them have come back to him.) I ran some numbers on his fumbling percentage compared to other top backs early in the year and it was not so good.
Statistical Notes – Adrian Peterson ran for 100+ yards for the 8th time this season. He’s on pace for nearly 1900 total yards. Jared Allen brought his sack total up to 12.5. Perhaps the time had come for change. Gus Frerotte threw his 12th interception in only 7 games. Calvin Johnson went over 1000 yards for the year but only has 56 catches. That’s a hefty 18.7 Yards per reception. He has 9 TD catches, 5 of which are from 30+ yards. Kevin Smith was involved in the offense again. Ignoring the turkey day debacle he has yardage totals of 123, 135, 86, and 90 in recent games. The five Lions QB’s have been sacked a total of 45 times already.
Colts over Bengals or “Bengals WIN!!…..time of possession battle. Lose game by 32.”
Ugh. The Bengals are not very good. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both almost started to prance with glee when Palmer walked onto the field…until they realized it was Jesse. Oh boy. Did I ever mention that the Cowboys gave up something like a 1st, 3rd, and 5th round pick for Roy Williams and probably could have been coaxed into a 1st, 3rd, and a 4th or even better for Chad Johnson? A hard line attitude towards malcontents is good. So is circling the wagons, declaring a rebuilding period, and getting draft picks for them is better.
Forget last week’s apparition that was the Browns game, Peyton Manning is playing well. He’s been sort of forgotten about in our new Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler world…..but he’s coming on strong and is spreading the ball all over the place. The Broncos had better hope Champ Bailey Returns better than ever and can cover about three people because when the Colts walk into Invesco Field at Mile High on wildcard weekend, Manning will be licking his chops. Don’t count this team out of the Super Bowl equation.
Statistical Notes – Peyton Manning has 12 TD’s to only 3 INT’s in the last six games after starting 10 TDs/9INTs. The colts have 5 total turnovers in six games. The Colts defense has 24 sacks. Robert Mathis has 11.5, Dwight Freeney has 9.5. The rest of the team has 3. T.J. Housh has 7 or more catches in 8 of 13 games. Chad Johnson posted his season high of 79 yards. Three previous season highs: 217, 260, and 189. The Bengals offense was dropped behind the line 10 times (5 Sacks, 5 Rushes) in this game. Bengals QB’s have been sacked 48 times this season.
Eagles over Giants or “Not what I was expecting…..”
The Eagles have to be absolutely maddening for their fans and those that bet on games. Look dismal while tying the Bengals and getting blown out by the Ravens, Blow out the Cardinals and beat possibly the best team in the league. Beat the Steelers, lose to the Bears.
Of course, there is the Brian Westbrook effect. He hasn’t really been healthy all season but he’s finally healthy enough to play well. On his first touchdown, the Giants had about 9 players in the box as the Eagles had one wide receiver split out. Westbrook ran into a pile, sideslipped, and took off down for the score. Later In the game, Westbrook was lined up in the backfield with 3 wide. He saw Mathais Kiwanuka come off the corner and chipped him just enough to move him out of Mcnabb’s path. Not necessarily recognized as a receiver In this play, he ran a simple wheel route that Antonio Pierce was way too late to recognize. This system is designed in a way that sets Brian Westbrook up to succeed…no doubt… but he really plays the game “Smart” and does a lot of the little things well.
Of course, I don’t want to make it sound like Westbrook did it all himself. The Eagles offensive line was huge this game. They held the Giants brutal defense to just one sack and gave Mcnabb plenty of time to throw the ball.
After I spent recent weeks praising the Giants unheralded wide receiving corps for performing without Plaxico, they look terrible. Dominik Hixon let an easy touchdown go right through his hands. I’m not saying that Plaxico would have been there and made that catch but it sure makes you wonder if they will miss him in the post season. Even more troubling was Brandon Jacobs trying to limp off the field. Derrick Ward has been fantastic for the Giants this season but I like him in his third down type role while the bruiser works the area between the tackles. Losing a game isn’t a signal to panic but losing your two best offensive players makes things a little shaky.
For all the Eagles did right, those two blocked kicks were ridiculous and the one to end the half was especially costly. How you allow that much penetration on a short kick is beyond me. If the Eagles manage to avoid getting two 32 yard field goal tries blocked, they win 26-7 and aren’t quite as nervous in the end.
Statistical Notes – What a difference in perception those two nightmare games make. Without them Donovann Mcnabb would have 18 touchdowns to only 5 Interceptions, a brilliant season. Not that 19/10 is bad. The Fact is he is on pace for a 4000 yard season, 60% completions, 24 TD’s (+1 rushing), and 12 INT’s with an acceptable 7.1 Yards per attempt. Did I mention he gets booed? After not scoring or having 100 total yards since October 26th, Brian Westbrook has 333 yards and 6 TD’s in the last two weeks. He’s over 1000 yards for the 5th straight season and over 10 TD’s for the 3rd straight. The Giants were held to their lowest (By 60+ yards) total of the season. They’ve been held to under 300 yards only 3 times. Eli Manning didn’t play that well but he did throw a touchdown for the 12th straight week.
Saints over Falcons or “Are you ready for some offense?”
828 yards. 26 first downs. 54 points. One turnover. Zero sacks. Not much defense going on here. The Saints had their star QB on pace to break Dan Marino’s record, but two running backs stole the show…and neither is named Deuce Mccallister. It looks like they are phasing him out despite the reprieve from the (Seemingly unfair) drug policy suspension. He appears to have been replaced by Pierre Thomas who came up huge. I don’t know what to say about him. He doesn’t look fast, he doesn’t look shifty, he just gets it done. Not only did he provide 109 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns, he came up with a huge 88 yard kick return. Reggie Bush also looked explosive at times in limited carries. The two combined for 218 of the Saints 414 yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
The Falcon’s ground game has been pretty good and despite one good run and a touchdown, Michael Turner was locked down pretty well by the Saints defense. Matt Ryan’s first possession interception was certainly an amateur mistake, telegraphing the pass by staring at his target all the way giving the defense ample time to react. After that miscue, he was once again sparkling. The rapport he has developed with his receiving corps allows him to know what to expect out of them. The longest pass of the game came after Ryan scrambled for a few seconds and simply tossed the ball up towards Roddy White. It wasn’t a particularily good throw but White has come down with quite a few similar passes this season. Later, he threw a semi-fade to the towering Brian Finneran In the side of the end zone. With Finneran having a good five inches on his defender, as long as the ball was up high he would be the only one to have a shot at it.
One thing about Drew Brees and his passing yards is I have to wonder how many yards the ball has actually travelled through the air. Once again we saw plenty of yard after catch out of this crew. All of the significant games came on fairly short passes followed by a run. With as many targets out there as the Saints have, the field gets spread forcing a defender in single coverage to make the tackle or almost certainly give up a large gain.
Statistical Notes – Drew Brees is over 4000 yards for the third straight season. His 230 yard game was a major set back in the chase for Dan Marino, and he would need to average 328 yards per game over the last three games to tie him. Pierre Thomas has 428 yards and 6 touchdowns in the last four games. Reggie Bush’ 80 rushing yards marked his highest total for the season and third highest in his career. Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 207 yards in eight straight games. During that stretch, he has 10 TD’s to only 4 INT’s and has completed 63 percent of his passes or better 6 times. Roddy White had his 7th 100 yard game of the season and took over as NFL receiving yards leader. He is on pace for 95 catches for 1534 yards.
Titans over Browns “Ken Dorsey led Browns or 1 loss Titans? Hardly a surprise.”
The Titans kept up with their winning formula. Run Chris Johnson right, Run Chris Johnson left, Run Lendale White up the middle. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. It really didn’t matter how many the Browns put in the box, the Titans offensive line is strong enough and Johnson (And to everyone’s surprise) White are shifty enough to find room to run. I remember two gains of 8+ yards, the Titans saw 8 in the box but Johnson was able to get into the secondary untouched. There were probably more.
Of course, the bruising running attack can open up other opportunities. In the first quarter down by 6 the Titans had the ball 4th and 1 on the Browns’ 28. They lined up in a standard 1 formation with Lendale White back. They ran a play fake left with fullback Ahmard Hall leading the way. Hall acted like he was blocking until he got five yards off the line of scrimmage and took off running. The Browns defenders in the area were looking at Lendale White trying to figure out if he dropped the ball or ate it. By the time they realized they were duped, the fullback was catching the ball and heading for paydirt.
Ken Dorsey picked a bad week to get to start. The Browns offense was anemic, with only 3 plays over 10 yards. The Browns did try a little Josh Cribbs In the backfield, which I think is a great move. Cribbs is an dynamic player. I think this strategy may work better against a less intense defense.
I want to throw something out there a little wild. Everyone has some thoughts on MVP candidates. Clinton Portis, Albert Haynesworth, Kurt Warner, A player from the Giants…. I ask you this. What is the big difference between the 2007 Titans who barely made the playoffs at 10-6 while beating six teams with about 24 wins between them and the 2008 Titans? What is the difference between a team 22nd in points, 21st In yards, 17th in first downs, 20th in Yards per pass and 21st in yards per rush and this years team: 6th in points, 13th in yards per pass, and 12 in yards per rush? Kerry Collins? Maybe…although Collins should finish the season with a lower completion % and about as many yards as Vince Young did last year (no doubt the turnovers have helped.)
I’m thinking that the Titans Largest need by far on offense was a playmaker. Someone who could break a few big ones a game. A guy they could count on to touch the ball a lot. Chris Johnson resembles that guy to me. With all due respect to Lendale White (And yes, I know he has a longer run this year than Chris Johnson) who shouldered the load fantastically last season and has played his role well this year, I can’t see the Titans having been as successful on offense without him. He doesn’t have eye popping numbers, but I think he’s every bit as valuable to his team as anyone else is to any other team.
Statistical Notes – Chris Johnson had his 4th 100 yard rushing performance of the year and went over 1000 yards on the season. He is on pace for nearly 1700 total yards. Lendale White went over 100 total yards for the second game In a row and scored his 14th touchdown which ties him for the league lead. Kerry Collins threw 2 INT’s, twice the number he has thrown in the past 7 games. Braylon Edwards 3 catches vaulted him in front of Kellen Winslow to become the season reception leader for the Browns…with 45 . The Browns have not scored an offensive touchdown in three straight games. They have 21 total points and 611 yards in that span.
Dolphins over Bills or “Bills players conspire to ensure Toronto does not want them.”
The Bills “Home Game” in what could someday be their new permanent home of Toronto was absolutely embarrassing. The Dolphins defense dominated the Bills offense, holding them to a meager 163 yards of total offense. The Bills averaged 24 points per game over the first six games of the season but have put up only six total points in the last two outings. The Dolphins and 49ers are hardly defensive powers, either. And to think! Dick Jauron just signed a huge contract extension.
I don’t know if I like the musical chairs game the Bills are playing with their QB’s. I know Trent Edwards is supposedly “Hurt” but it seems more like a demotion. J.P. Losman has been with this team for five seasons. If they have not seen anything they are sure of by now, I don’t think they will. The season is lost and Edwards barely has a full year’s worth of games under his belt. If you are going to try to develop a quarterback, stick with him and allow some continuity.
The Dolphins offense wasn’t explosive but it got the job done. The Bills pass rush was non-existent and Chad Pennington absolutely thrives in this type of situation. I am not sure there are any quarterbacks in the NFL as ACCURATE as Pennington when given time to sit back in the pocket. That’s not to say he’s a great QB with a huge arm, but he can very much manage a game. I think this team is going to the playoffs.
Statistical Notes – Davone Bess suddenly has 20 catches for 245 yards in the last two games. He’s a small quick receiver with some speed. He’s like Tedd Ginn, only cheaper and better. Ronnie Brown is close to hitting 1000 total yards. Chad Pennington is on pace for 3766 yards, easily his best season in terms of passing yards. The Dolphins had their third turnover free game. In the other Ten games, they had a single turnover in each. Joey Porter racked up 2 more sacks to bring his season total to 16.5. His previous high? 10.5. He has at least one sack in 11 of 13 games. Marshawn Lynch had an excellent three week run snapped by getting only 14 carries. He’s on pace for over 1400 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Josh Reed has gotten more involved, with 5 catches each of the last three games with yardage totals of 50, 58, and 58. How’s that for consistency?
49ers over Jets or “Uhhh, wasn’t Favre supposed to just be a game manager?”
Despite the fact that the Bills had posted a season high 153 rushing yards on the 49ers last week and despite the fact that their team’s resurgence has come not through the air, but on the ground, the Jets coaching staff decided to take the ball from Thomas Jones and put it in the hands of Brett Favre. The Jets called Thomas Jones’ number only 10 times on Sunday despite his averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry on those limited touches. Why? Despite early season success, Lavernious Coles and Jerricho Cotchery have not been getting open and have been dropping balls. This is a team that counts on it’s running backs to make plays and they chose to keep the ball away from them. On Sunday, the Jets averaged 4.9 yards per rushing play and 3.6 yards per passing play.
This poor play calling led to only 10 first downs which of course, led to a serious differential in time of possession. The more balanced 49ers offense managed to stay on the field for nearly 40 minutes. Even after Frank Gore went down, the San Fran continued to be committed to the run with Deshon Foster.
The 49ers offensive line played well. As a unit that has given up like 800 sacks the last few seasons I have to say I can remember about 4 occasions out of the 40 pass plays where Shaun Hill was flushed from the pocket. Most of the game he was kept insulted. The schemes even kept Jets blitzers from getting through. On many plays, 49ers receivers were absolutely wide open. Shaun Hill played well, but he was put in a situation where he was almost sure to succeed.
Penalties were a big problem for the Jets on Sunday but one in particular looms large. Explosive Leon Washington weaved through defenders 99 yards on a kick return. This play could have changed the game drastically. Here comes the flag and it’s coming back. Do not hold/block in the back on special teams. You will likely get caught and a potential game breaker can be denied.
Statistical notes – Thomas Jones has now scored in seven straight games. Brett Favre is 43/74 for 384 yards with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s and 5.2 yards per attempt in the last two games (both losses). Isaac Bruce has 19 catches in the last three games for 262 yards and 2 TDs. Shaun Hill has 10 touchdowns and 4 INT’s. No QB since Jeff Garcia has thrown more Touchdowns than Interceptions for the 49ers.
Patriots over Seahawks or “A Seneca Wallace vs. Matt Cassell Shootout. Decidedly not what was expected on this day.”
With both their veteran QB’s that had career seasons last year sidelined, we were treated to Seneca Wallace against Matt Cassell….and dare I say it was a treat! I know that a lot of people lack faith in Seneca Wallace, no doubt due to the ever growing roll call of failed “Athletic” quarterbacks: Michael Vick, Kordell Stewart, Vince Young, Tarvaris Jackson, Aaron Brooks, Byron Leftwich… Sometimes we forget the ones that have succeed such as Steve Young, Randal Cunningham, Donovan Mcnabb, and Steve Mcnair. Wallace has had the benefit of watching a quarterback with good mechanics and being taught by a coach known for developing passers.
Not that there was much to say about the defense in this game, how come teams seem to completely forget about Wes Welker every game? Out of his 12 receptions, Wes Welker produced 8 first downs….five of them on third down. Defensive coordinators! Make sure someone knows where Wes Welker is on third down! Randy Moss may be the hall of famer but Welker is the one moving the chains for this team!
I give Bill Bellichick a lot of credit for what he has done with his team over the years. No doubt. I do wonder why it appears that he has not learned anything from last season. As the weather got colder, the high flying offense slowed down a bit. It didn’t hurt them so bad because of how strong their team was, but they aren’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. Once again, the weather is getting colder and the Patriots can’t run the ball and are not making much of an effort to do so. Running backs took handoffs a mere 17 times out of 72 plays. They are going to have to mix it up a bit if they expect to beat the Steelers or Titans in the playoffs.
Statistical Notes – Rookie Tight End John Carlson is really turning into a force and has 14 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown the last two games. Seneca Wallace has 7 TD’s and 0 INT’s in four games (120 pass attempts). Wes Welker is on pace to put up better numbers than last season (118 catches to 112 and 1250 yards to 1175). He has gone over 100 yards in four of five games. Randy Moss became the 11th player in NFL history to gain 13,000 receiving yards.
Steelers over Cowboys or “Steelers fans rush to doctors for Sunday Valium Scripts”
The Steelers cut it close again. As with the Chargers game, they don’t move the ball too well all game and manage to come up with a lot of points in the last few minutes (I still consider the Chargers game to be 18-10…not 11-10). Having put up 3 points on 103 yards late into the third quarter, they manufacture a long drive and find themselves with a 3rd and goal on the one. Incomplete, loss of three, turnover on downs. They get the ball back down by 10 with 8 minutes to play. 6 minutes and 17 points later, they lead by 7.
The Steelers offense was just ugly in this outing. 13 Points from the offense despite getting the ball on their own forty or better 8 times and on the right side of the fifty 5 times. By the numbers they were 3/16 on third down, 1 for 4 in the red zone, allowed 5 sacks, and averaged only 3.7 yards per offensive play. Luckily, their defense is so utterly dominant that it can keep them I games.
The Cowboys offense was also pretty bad. Tony Romo had a terrible game. His three interceptions were ugly. The first he threw into an area occupied by about five Steelers and two Cowboys. On the second was on a stop and go by Terrell Owens. Tony Romo watched Owens the whole way, making an unconvincing pump fake on the stop and pulling back as he threw the ball. Owens had no chance on it. The final devastating pick came late in the fourth quarter. He was pressured and threw to an area with no Cowboy in sight. Pick Six. Game over. Commence finger pointing. Jerry Jones calling out Marion Barber for not playing on Sunday, Tony Romo yelling at his offensive line, and Terrell Owens yelling at everyone. With the NFC South teams playing so well the Cowboys had best get it together if they expect to make it to the post season.
Statistical Notes – Unheralded running back Terrence Choice had 166 total yards on Sunday. The Cowboys had 289 as a team. In six weeks as a Cowboy, Roy Williams is averaging 2 catches for 30 yards. Terrell Owens has scored in four of the last five games. Demarcus Ware picked up his 16th sack of the season. Troy Palamalu has an interception in four straight games. Pittsburgh’s defense has forced 10 turnovers in two games. After throwing 8 picks in a three week stretch, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown zero in four games.
Texans over Packers or “Anology. Packers:4th Quarter Lead. Plaxico: Gun in Sweatpants.”
The Packers really cannot stop anybody. For the fourth time in six weeks they completed melted down at the end of the game. People can talk about Brett Favre until they are blue in the face, but tumbling from the 6th ranked defense to the 23rd is what truly has caused their downfall. After a holding penalty brought a 9 yard run to the Texans 13 back to the 32nd and a 9 yard sack, the Packers were forced to punt with the game tied. They pinned the Texans on their own 3 with 1:49 remaning in regulation. 8 plays and 75 yards later, Kris Brown got onto to the field and finished them off. The Texans even gave the ball away after drives of 79 and 71 yards or the Texans would have routed the Packers.
Early in the game, I was a little dismayed with the Packers play calling. Apparently it was decided that they could beat the Texans deep and Mike Mccarthy had Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball long. This really hasn’t been a successful strategy for the Packers. 8 of the Packers 19 rushes came on 3 drives, leaving the other 9 drives with 11 rushes. What did the three “Run Heavy” drives have in common? They produced the three Packers touchdowns.
With Matt Schaub back the Texans offense is operating on all cylinders. They are putting up Gobs of yardage but not so many points. They do need to avoid the turnovers. They have a good core of offensive skill position players (Shaub when healthy, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Walter.) I believe they can make some noise if they can keep that group together. They are 6-3 after an 0-4 start where they played the Titans, Steelers, and Colts who are a combined 31-7.
Statistical Notes – The Texans had less than 355 yards only once since week 4. Kevin Walter has 445 yards and 3 TD’s in the last five games. Andre Johnson is on pace for 113 catches for 1500 yards. Steve Slaton had his 6th 100+ total yard game and is on pace for 1600+ total yards and 11 TD’s. The Packers defense has allowed 20 or more first downs 8 times this season. They are 2-6 in those games. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 2 or 3 TD’s in 8 games and for 250+ yards in 6. He is on pace for 3950 yards, 28 TD’s and 13 INT’s. Greg Jennings has 23 catches for 339 yards and 3 TD’s the last four games. Green Bay has only 21 sacks on the year. Aaron Kampmann has 9.5 of them, leaving 11.5 for the rest of the team!
Panthers over Buccanneers or “Deangelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart replace boogey man in Tampa area children’s nightmares.”
I made it to the Super Bowl in my 14 team league. My opponent for the next week was hanging In the balance. My best friend was losing his matchup by 48 points. The scoring system is 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, 7 points for a touchdown. I went to watch the game with him to give moral support. He has a great team but I knew his season was over with only Antonio Bryant and Deangelo Williams left to play. He would need something like 100 yards and 2 TD’s out of each to win. He was strangely calm about it and kept telling me how he was going to crush me in the Super Bowl next week. Yup. He was in Denial.
He uhm, ended up winning by 16. He was going absolutely berserk. It was a great time. Next week we’ll be mortal enemies, with a ton of pride, my perfect fantasy season (I’m 14-0. Seriously. ) and the greater share of the $1100+ pool on the line. That Monday we were 8 year old kids jumping up and down and yelling at a bar where nobody else was paying attention to the game. It was Fantasy Football at its finest.
Now that the personal aside is over, I’ll get back to the game. What incredible individual efforts out of Jeff Garcia, Bryant, Williams, Steve Smith, and Jonathon Stewart. Although the game ended with a sizeable margin of victory for the Panthers, I think the seeds were sewn early for the Bucs loss. First, after a nine minute drive, Matt Bryant who has missed only 2 field goals inside of 50 yards bounced a 40 yarder off the uprights. On the Bucs next possession, they found themselves with a 1st and goal at the Panthers 2 yard line. A drop on first down by Alex Smith and a drop on third down by Jeremy Stevens after some brilliant scrambling by Jeff Garcia led to 4th down and the Bucs took the field goal. I can see why Garcia chose to go to Bryant all day after those plays.
I do wonder why Jon Gruden didn’t commit to running three straight times at that point. The Panthers run defense has been good but not spectacular this season. The Bucs are a better team when running the ball. In the 4 losses this season, they have averaged 42.5 passing plays. Taking away the bizarre Bears game where they called 67 pass plays, They averaged 27.5 passing plays in their 8 victories (32 passing plays with the Bears game). Why mess with what works?
The last time these teams played, the Panthers turned Jake Delhomme “Loose” on the Bucs having him throw 39 times. Deangelo Williams and Stewart ran the ball 17 times for only 39 yards. They’ve been running wild since then and stuck with it. The Bucs defense has been pretty solid this season and they just looked silly. They were blown off the line and then juked or run over by the Panthers duo. As the game wore on so did the Bucs and it seemed every time the Panthers handed off, they were going to gain at least 10 yards.
I thought about this game later in the context of a possible playoff matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I thought for sure the Giants would roll through the playoffs but now I am not sure. The Eagles and Brian Westbrook shredded New York despite not being really strong running the ball recently. The Panthers could be much worse. They are vulnerable to a dominant receiver taking the game over as was demonstrated, but the Giants’ dominant receiver is heading to prison. How large will Plaxico’s problems loom if the Panthers end up playing the Giants?
Statistical Notes – In his first 75 games, Antonio Bryant had 7 100 yard games. In 12 games this season with Tampa, he has 4. Since taking his job back, Jeff Garcia has 8 touchdowns and a single interception in 251 attempts. 10 Buccanneers have an interception. 6 have more than one. Deangelo Williams has now scored in 7 straight games. He has 854 yards and 12 TD’s in that span and is averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry. NOTE: When I said Lendale White was tied for the lead in total touchdowns with 14 I had written it before this game. Williams has 15. Despite missing 2 games to start the season, Steve Smith is fifth in receiving yards with 1075. He has 3 straight 100 yard games and 6 in the last 8. Jake Delhomme is averaging 165 yards per game and has 4 TDs and 6 INTs in the last five games.
Carnage Guesses On games.
Last week I rocked with a 12-4 record. I don’t know why I didn’t pick the Panthers. That puts me at 129-73 on the year. Remember, this is straight up, not against the spread.
Chargers over Raiders
Bears over Jaguars
Vikings over Lions
Packers of Texans
Colts over Bengals
Saints over Falcons
Giants over Eagles
Titans over Browns
Dolphins over Rams
Pats over Seahawks
Cardinals over Rams
Ravens over Redskins
Bucs over Panthers
Crazy Upset Duo: Chiefs over Broncos and 49ers over Jets
Let’s see what we have next week. I look at the lines to declare crazy upset picks (They are five or more point underdogs). I was actually surprised to see the Ravens and even moreso….the COWBOYS as favorites. If I were a gambling man…..I get the Giants and three points? You are kidding! It’s at Dallas and the Giants are coming off a loss and may be without Brandon Jacobs…but the Cowboys are in complete disarray!
Saints over Bears
Falcons over Bucs
Redskins over Bengals
Titans over Texans
Packers over Jaguars
Dolphins over 49ers
Rams over Seahawks
Chargers over Chiefs
Colts over Lions
Cardinals over Vikings
Panthers over Broncos
Patriots over Raiders
Giants over Cowboys
Eagles over Browns
Ravens over Steelers
Crazy Upset pick – Bills over Jets
See you next week when we are 7/8ths done with the season. Yikes!
Filed under: AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, Articles, Blog, NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFL, Predictions | Tagged: Antonio Bryant, Brett Favre, Brian Westbrook, Deangelo Williams, NFL, Review, Week 14
