Carnage’s Long and Boring Week 8 Review

This was a disappointing week in the NFL for me. First off, my Packers were not playing. The bye week always makes me feel a little empty (as opposed to either maniacally happy or cripplingly depressed, depending on if they won or lost). In addition to that, at 12:45 PM today one of my friends said “Hey, what’s the late game tonight.” It was at that point I realized that there was going to be 210 or so minutes less of me sitting around watching football. World Series? Bah. I’m just not a baseball fan. If the Brewers had somehow made it I would probably watch it just to see the home team, but the sport really holds little interest to me. Finally, trick or treat was in effect from 2-4 in the neighborhood surrounding the football pad. Cheering was interrupted by pirates, ghosts, witches, goblins, and pumpkins ringing the doorbell. Not one kid was dressed as a football player though.

At least in the 6 and a half hours that football WAS on today, it was pretty good. 10 of the 13 games offered were compelling at least until the fourth quarter, and many of those were decided pretty late.

Ravens over Raiders or “It’s really really hard to run on the Ravens.”

When I saw this game in this week’s lineup I thought “This won’t be pretty for the Raiders.” It wasn’t. The Raiders really need to be able to run the ball to be successful and it just wasn’t going to happen here. It was Darren Mcfadden’s turn to be injured for the game so Justin Fargus and Michael Bush carried the load. They combined for only 32 yards on 17 carries. The Ravens D was all over them at the line of scrimmage. The Raiders tallied -2 yards in the first quarter and 35 yards for the first half. Their first half possessions were Punt, Safety, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt.

I love watching the Ravens aggressive defense but I am a little disappointed in the “Headhunting” thing with Rashard Mendenhall. I realize that it is just a little thing to get the defense fired up, but the job of the defense is to hit EVERY opposing player as hard as possible, not to target a single guy and certainly not to hurt anybody. The classy thing to do would be to call off the pool if you put someone out for the season. No player should revel in the severe injury of another.

Also on display in this game were two young quarterbacks whom the hopes of the franchise rest upon. Neither played very well, but Joe Flacco’s performance was the more intriguing (more on that In a bit). I will say this….Jamarcus Russell’s arm is STRONG. In the second quarter, he threw a ball with what looked like minimal effort about 60 yards through the air. His Accuracy? Not so good. That same ball overshot its intended receiver by about 8 yards and was picked off.

Russell is supposed to be the athletic one but Joe Flacco had 66 yards rushing and receiving! Watching him rumble 38 yards to pay dirt against the Bengals in week 1 looked like watching in slow motion, but maybe he has some speed. Following the recent trend of trick plays, Flacco and backup QB Troy Smith lined up in the backfield. They had two tight ends on either side, and two receivers lined up right. The two Receivers ran short patterns near the right sidelines and the left tight end dragged towards the right. Flacco handed the ball to Smith and immediately took off around the left tackle and headed up field. Linebacker Thomas Howard caught on to what was going on and bolted past Flacco who had a few steps on him. The deep safety and cornerback on that side were milling around watching what was happening 30 yards away from them and Smith dropped a pass into Flacco for a big gain. Howard must have been thinking “LOOK THIS WAY! This maniac QB thinks he’s a deep threat.” They didn’t look that way until it was too late.

Statistical Notes – The Ravens defense is only giving up 64 yards on the ground per game and have not allowed a team to run for 100 yards all season. Joe Flacco has 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s in the last two games as opposed to 1 TD and 7 INT’s in the first five. Willis Mcgahee had 58 yards on 23 carries. Ray Rice and Leron Mcclain combined for 96 yards on 15 carries. Hmmmm. Jamarcus Russell failed to complete half of his pass attempts for the fourth time in seven games.

Panthers over Cardinals or “I’m guessing I’ll hear “I told you so” from a few people.”

Two weeks in a row I Pick the Panthers to lose. Last week it was obvious from the start that I was wrong. This week, I was feeling pretty smug into the third quarter. Ooops. For the record, I’m picking the Panthers to win next week no matter who they play.

First off, I really have to wonder about that fake field goal attempt near the end of the first half. I didn’t see it personally and it wasn’t on any highlights so I don’t know if it was a botched attempt. It went down as a “Fake Field Goal” so I assume it was a planned play. The Cardinals had 4^th and 15 from the Panthers 21 yard line. They line up for a field goal and end up with PUNTER Dirk Johnson throwing the ball for a 10 yard gain. I can see a fake on 4^th and 4 or something, but 4^th and 15? Seriously? Instead of kicking a 38 yard field goal and likely going into the locker room up by 10 at the end of the half? Dirk Johnson showed his stuff later in the game by simply dropping the ball as he attempted to plant it on an extra point attempt. 3 points plus 1 point? Hey! That’s the difference in the game!

Finding themselves down by 14 in the third quarter with the Cardinals moving the ball pretty easily, most teams would start to panic and go pass wacky. On their next possession, the Panthers called run, pass, pass, run, run, run. They stayed true to their game plan and avoided the one dimensional three and out/three and out/interception/game over attack that plagues many teams. Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme came up with some big plays, but Deangelo Williams enabled the downfield plays to open up. This team played excellent football in the second half.

Of course, they could have went into half time with four more points on the board. Jake Delhomme threw a pass to an absolutely wide open Mushin Muhammed in the end zone. If the Panthers had lost this game by four I’m thinking he’d be the least popular person in the Charlotte area.

The Cardinals on the other hand look like they are getting ready to throw away the “Run Plays” section of their playbook. Out of 67 plays, they ran 14 times…once being an end around to Anquan Boldin. The remaining 13 carries for Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower gave the Cards 20 yards on 13 carries, 1 TD, and a huge fumble. It’s pretty bad when the running game won’t open up even when rushing the ball is practically a trick play for your team. Kurt Warner has been pretty good this season and has some spectacular receivers, but I have to wonder if he can continue to throw 40 times per game for an entire season.

Anquan Boldin is one tough dude. Seriously. He got hit so hard in the game against the Jets that he had 8 plates put into his face, had his jaw wired, had a concussion, and lost 15 pounds. He only missed two games and played very well Sunday. If I had eight plates put in my face I would still be laying on the couch and yelling at my wife to increase the rate of the Morphine drip.

Statistical Notes – Ignoring the Buccanneers debacle, Jake Delhomme has 8 TD’s to 1 INT in the past four games (8/4 in the last five with the Tampa game). Steve Smith has at least 96 yards in each of his last five games. Deangelo Williams had 3 100 yard games in his first 29 outings and has 2 in his last 8. Kurt Warner has throw a touchdown in his last 15 games and multiple TD’s in 14 of them. Larry Fitzgerald has 4 100 yard games out of 5 when Bolding is in the lineup, 0 in 2 when Boldin is out. Anquan Boldin has 7 TD’s in 5 games. Tim Hightower has 65 touches this season…and six touchdowns! He scores every 10 times he touches the ball!

Cowboys over Buccanneers or “It was UGLY but they’ll take it.”

This was a huge win for the Cowboys. They needed to stop the bleeding that happened over the last four games, and they needed to do it without Tony Romo. Brad Johnson is not good. I know he was a decent veteran quarterback and has a super bowl ring but at age forty he is slow and doesn’t have arm strength or accuracy. After watching him throw a few passes that were not even close, I thought Terrell Owens was about to go into meltdown mode. I knew the team had to win at least one of the three without Tony Romo, but after they lost the Rams game I thought they were in trouble, because no way do they beat the Giants on the road with Johnson. Still, if they are looking at 5-4 worst case scenario and a fully healed Romo after the bye week, they need to sit him one more week if he needs it.

The Cowboys defense, which hasn’t played well in the last few weeks, really stepped it up. The stat of the game is 0 for 3, which would be the Bucs in the Red Zone. The other stat of the game is 45:20, which is the ratio of passes to runs that the Bucs called. Their three losses have been decided by a total of 11 points. Over those three losses they have run the ball 60 times out of 187 plays (32% of the time) and in their five wins, they ran 163 out of 342 times (48% of the time). Earnest Graham wasn’t having his best day rushing, granted, but they didn’t even try to switch over to Warrick Dunn’s different style to see if he could have more success. Jon Gruden’s tactics have really been bothering me.

Dallas’ go ahead drive was a disaster for the Bucs defense. The Cowboys got the ball with just over 2 minutes in the first half at their own 41. They needed to match 59 yards to score a touchdown. They gained 29 yards, and the Bucs gave them 30 yards in penalties to help them to the end zone. Despite holding the Cowboys to 172 yards of offense, the Cowboys managed to score three times.

Statistical Notes – The Cowboys offense was averaging 393 yards per game going into Sunday. They ended up 220 yards under average! Marion Barber didn’t have his best outing, finding little room to run against the Tampa front line but he did manage to put up 100 total yards for the 6^th time in 8 games. Terrell Owens has a total of 101 yards in the last 3 games. The Bucs D held the opponent to under 200 yards for the 3^rd time this season and is averaging 277 yards per game. Jeff Garcia has thrown 100 passes in the last three games without throwing a single INT. Brian Griese attempted 147 passes and threw 6 INT’s in his time as a starter.

Redskins over Lions or “Seven down, nine to go!”

The Lions were looking to jeopardize their winless streak. Despite being outgained 212 yards to 104, they went into the locker room at halftime….winning? The Redskins, with the St. Louis debacle and the near disaster against the Browns had to be a little nervous.

No reason for that though…it’s the Lions. Once again I must point out an unbalanced team. Before the season started, the Lions declared that with Mike Martz out they were going to commit to running the football. Out of 51 plays called, they ran 13 times. Ugh. On the year they have only ran the ball a mere 122 times in 378 plays, an atrocious 32% of the time. Hey! You are 0-7! What you are doing isn’t working! Try something new!

In the Panthers game, we saw speedy little 5′9″ 185 pound Steve Smith make two huge plays to score touchdowns. There is another speed little 5′9″ 185 pound wide receiver that makes plays too, and Santana Moss matched Steve Smith’s touchdown total with a 50 yard catch and a big punt return. Moss managed to avoid getting tackled by several Lions players and one Redskin. If you have not noticed, he is really fast.

I think a player that is really overlooked is Jason Campbell. He had another fantastic game today. I mentioned it before but the difference from last year to this year in his ability to get the ball to his wideouts is amazing. He’s spreading the ball around and avoiding making ill advised throws even when under pressure. The Lions were getting to him and did force him to cough off the ball on a few sacks but he played very smart once again and kept the chains moving (16 first downs passing on just 28 pass attempts). I doubted him as last year wore on but I am super impressed by him thus far in 2008.

Statistical Notes – Clinton Portis is having an unbelievable season. The Redskins keep feeding him the rock (20+ carries in all 8 games) and he keeps producing. He had his fifth 100 yard game in a row. He’s on pace for nearly 1900 rushing yards on 5 yards per carry. Santana Moss is on pace for 1300 yards and 10 TD’s. The Detriot Lions average time of possession is 24:42. That is bad. Somewhere in this mess Calvin Johnson has still managed to be on pace for 1300 yards and 10 TD’s. Promising rookie Kevin Smith had 26 carries in the first two games and 30 carries total in the last 5.

Dolphins over Bills or “Trent Edward’s bad day.”

If anything, the Dolphins are…interesting this season. They have moved the ball pretty well in almost every game. The wildcat is still a factor and the team employed it at least 10 times and got a few decent runs out of it. Even Ricky Williams got a shot at taking a direct snap. The big story on offense was yards after the catch. Ted Ginn had a big day, a lot of it running after catching the ball and Ricky Williams turned a short pass in the flat into a 47 yard gain. Chad Pennington had a 300 yard game on paper, but credit his pass catchers with almost half of it.

Joey Porter continues to be a force on the Dolphins defensive side of the ball. Thought to be past his prime, he puts good pressure on the QB and came up with 2 more sacks and a huge “fumble” recovery when he took the ball away from Trent Edwards on a fourth and short play.

Edwards lost the ball twice, saw a wobbly ball get picked off after being blindsided, and was taken down in the end zone for 2 points. Edwards had taken reasonably good care of the ball until today. He seems to be having problems finding anybody open down the field except for Lee Evans. It’s hard to tell if he is leaning on Evans or if the others are just not getting open.

Statistical Notes – Chad Pennington threw for over 300 yards on Sunday and is averaging 280 yards per game over the last four outings. He has 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s during that time. He’s not a bad desperation fantasy QB. Ted Ginn Jr. had 177 yards in the first six games this season and 175 yards on Sunday. Marshawn Lynch has scored in 5 of 7 games but still has not gained 100 total yards in a game this season. Lee Evans had his third 100 yard game of the season and is on pace for a career high 1400 yards. Joey Porter now has 10.5 sacks on the season.

Patriots over Rams or “Come see stars like Antonio Pittman, Donnie Avery, Matt Cassell, and Benjarvis Green-Ellis battle it out.”

Those probably aren’t the names you thought of in preseason when seeing this game on the schedule. With Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, and Steven Jackson out not to mention Tory Holt lost for the season to this point to double teams…these are some of the guys who were big players in this game. Seriously.

Donnie Avery, a player many people mocked for making the first wide receiver off the board, made Marc Bulger look great. On one of the deep balls he caught, he had to stop his all out sprint to turn around and come back to the ball. That is incredibly difficult to do and is something that not too many rookies are good at. Fighting your own momentum and the momentum of your defender is not an easy thing to do. I do wonder if Donnie Avery would have had such a strong game if the Patriots had not lost Rodney Harrison for the season (Career?)

The Rams #2 overall pick Chris Long has had a pretty quiet rookie year. He looked like he would be easily dominated early on and the Rams being run all over he’s holding his ground a little better and was able to get to Matt Cassell a few times and sacked him twice. I think people sometimes expect that defensive ends should be able to jump right in and pick up where they left off in college. There is technique to learn and veteran opposing offensive linemen can be very crafty and difficult to beat. We saw Mario Williams have a slow start his rookie year and get labeled a bust. Last I checked, he was doing pretty well.

Facing third and 1 from the Rams 3, the Patriots trotted out linebacker Mike Vrabel. In previous years the Patriots liked to put him in on short yardage goal line situations and pass the ball to him. This time, handoff to Green-Ellis, first down. Vrabel stays in the lineup and checks in as an eligible receiver once again. Green-Ellis up the middle for a touchdown. With all the “Trick” plays going around the league the Patriots decided to run a Trick, Trick play.

Matt Cassell didn’t look incredible but he has been improving. I think Tom Brady finally called him up and said “Hey Matt, this job really isn’t that hard. I thought you’d figure this one out by now but if you throw the ball in Randy Moss’ general direction he’s big enough that he can usually fight off 2 or 3 guys for it. He’ll usually run a little bit after he catches it so your numbers will look bigger.” In the Patriots two losses Randy Moss averaged 3 catches for 25 yards. In their five wins he grabbed 5 balls for 84 yards.

Statistical Notes – Moss is the big play guy but it’s easy to find Wes Welker open. He has at least 6 catches in all 7 games this season. Kevin Faulk is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The rest of the Patriots team is averaging 3.9 YPC. Marc Bulger threw for 300+ yards for the first time since last November. Sunday was also the first game this season he eclipsed the 200 yard mark. Donnie Avery has 291 yards and 3 TD’s in the last three weeks. If he’s on your fantasy waiver wire, he shouldn’t be. Torry Holt moved up to #15 on the all time receiving yards list, although he isn’t having a very Holt like season.

Saints over Chargers or “How odd, that Chap is trotting in the wrong direction!”

Historic Interlude – During the NFL pregame show the London game was hyped a lot and they cut over to the United States National Anthem being sung in front of the crowd at Wembley Stadium. My wife pointed out how bizarre the situation actually was. The Star Spangled Banner of course, was written during the war in 1812 and was about Francis Scott Key’s feeling of pride when the Americans repelled the Royal Navy’s attempt to bombard Fort McHenry. Fort McHenry was a crucial embattlement that prevented the Royal Navy from devastating or taking Baltimore which was one of the largest American cities at that time. Essentially the song is a tribute to us keeping the Imperialistic scum from retaking or levying more sanctions on our new country that was once under control of the British crown. Both the War of 1812 and Revolutionary Wars were embarrassing to the British Empire. The Star Spangled Banner was followed by “God Save the Queen”, the British National Anthem. That song speaks of “Scattering her enemies, making them fall, confusing their politics, and frustrating their knavish Tricks.” Adopted around the time that the American Revolution takes place, it promotes killing the enemies and removing political leaders while avoiding the guerilla tactics these mere rabble servants have laid. Uhm, that would refer at least in some part to the United States!

Anyway, back to football. Both teams here were pretty much facing much win games. Chargers running back Ladainian Tomlinson declared himself totally healthy while the Saints were without Reggie Bush and had a number of players involved in a failed test for banned substances. The talk all week wasn’t about running backs though, it was about quarterbacks. Philip Rivers took over Drew Brees’ position with the Chargers which resulted in Brees hooking up with the Saints. These two players did NOT disappoint.

Drew Brees came out looking like ridiculously efficient once again, connecting on 21 out of his first 25 attempts. I thought he might flounder a little bit without Reggie Bush as his safety valve, but when he gets adequate protection he is just ridiculous. He’s a pretty small guy but his arm is deceptively strong and extremely accurate. With Tom Brady out and Peyton Manning having an unpeyton like year, I have to say Brees is the best in the NFL right now. He can throw the short ball, the can throw the long ball, and most important of all he just plays smart.

That isn’t to say that Philip Rivers is chopped liver. He played a heck of a game, too. His Interception ended the game but keep in mind that a long field goal try could have tied the game at that and Rivers had what would have been his fourth TD pass of the game nullified by a penalty a few drives earlier. Penalties devastated the Chargers. I don’t know if it was lack of focus due to a Jet Lag effect or a sign of a frustrated team. Either way, 14 penalties for a total of 134 yards is always going to be a barrier to victory.

British fans must have been very confused by Drew Brees trying to burn time by sprinting towards the wrong goal to burn time and take a safety. Actually, I AM confused by it. The play only took five seconds off the clock. By punting to the Chargers with 14 seconds left, they could have kicked towards the sidelines and put them at the Chargers 40 without too much effort. In the case of some miracle, the Chargers could have scored a touchdown and been faced with either kicking the PAT to tie the game or going for two and the win. If something crazy happened after the Safety and the Chargers managed to get into the end zone, the Saints lose.

One more comment on this game. This wasn’t as bad as last years’ “Mud Bowl” but the conditions of the center of the field at Wembley again were not good. I really don’t like this “Regular season game in London” thing very much as it is. The Saints won, yes, but they are a reasonable contender that lost a home game AND had to fly over the Atlantic to play a game. Add poor field conditions which increase the risk of injuries makes playing in this game look even less compelling. If the NFL is going to be playing more games in foreign countries they better start checking out the venues in advance to ensure playing surfaces are safe.

Statistical Notes – Brees has 300+ yards in 6 of eight games. He is on pace for 5126 yards on the season. In four Saints wins he has 12 TD’s and 2 INT’s. In four Saints losses he has 3 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Philip Rivers has at least 1 TD pass in fifteen games going back to last year. He has 3 TD’s in 5 out of eight games this season. He’s on pace for a 4000 yard, 38 TD, 12 INT season. Those are elite numbers. Vincent Jackson has scored in three straight games. Lance Moore had his third 6+ catches, 90+ yard game out of the last five games. Tight End Billy Miller is averaging 63 Yards per game over the last four games. The two QB’s combined to throw the ball 85 times. They hit 15 different receivers and neither was sacked a single time.

Run the Ball or “The Statistic with the greatest corollary to winning.”

I talk a lot about teams failing to try to run the ball quite a bit in these reviews. I also run this section pretty often. I’m not a crusty old school guy who thinks the forward pass is the worst thing to happen to football, but I can’t help but notice how much a team’s success depends on running the ball. I will look at the percentage of plays the winning team called that were runs compared to the same stat of the opponent. Every week the majority of the teams that ran the ball a higher percentage of the time are the ones that won. This week, heading into Monday Night, this rule held true in 13 of 13 games. The winners of the games ran 812 offense plays and called 392 runs (48.2% rushing plays). The losers of the games ran 818 offensive plays and called 284 runs (34.7% rushing plays). On average, game winners ran the ball 13% more frequently than game losers. Some will argue that this is inevitable because the team that is ahead will run and the team behind will pass. I want to remind everyone at this point that most of the games were close this week with fourth quarter lead changes in many of them. Teams could safety run the ball as usual most of the game. Falling behind early doesn’t necessarily mean you need to abandon the run. See Panthers, Carolina.

Jets over Chiefs or “Brett Favre outdueled by….Tyler Thigpen?”

The Jets were extremely lucky to come away from this came victorious. Brett Favre did a really bad job protecting the ball for the third week in a row, though the Jets did win two of those games. It looked like Favre was really getting in synch with his receivers after demolishing the Cardinals in week 4. The three picks he threw this week were absolutely horrible. One was into double coverage, one was into triple coverage, and one hit Cornerback Brandon Flowers in the chest and wasn’t within 8 yards of a Jets receiver. A potential fourth pick that probably would have went the other way bounced off the chest of a chiefs defender. Even the two touchdown passes he threw were a testament to his receivers. Leon Washington one handed a screen pass and made some moves to scramble into the end zone. Lavernious Coles came back for a poorly thrown bal to make a one handed grab in the end zone.

The Chiefs defense hasn’t really stopped anybody running the ball all season so I was a bit puzzled that Thomas Jones and Leon Washington only were given 17 carries between them. These are two fine players and should be utilized more. With due respect to Coles, Leon Washington is the most explosive guy on this team and is only touching the ball 7 times a game (receptions included).

On the other side, Minnesota Vikings 2007 7^th round pick Tyler Thigpen out of Coastal Carolina suddenly looked like an all star. Since I’m guessing he’s not REALLY that good, I’m thinking that Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are simply outstanding players to throw to. Again, I can’t say enough about Gonzo showing up to be a leader for a 1-6 team despite practically begging to be traded. He is (statistically) the greatest tight end in the history of the league and his career is nearing an end. Being part of a rebuilding project has to hurt, but Tony Gonzalez continues to show up and play hard. Larry Johnson would do well to follow his example. Trades didn’t go through? Shut up, play, and behave like a man off the field.

Statistical Notes – Lavernious Coles has 33 Catches and five TD’s in his last five games. Despite some of the struggles, Brett Favre is on pace to throw 33 TD’s which would be his best total since 1997. He is also completing a career high 68.5 % of his passes. Unfortunately he is leading the league with 11 INT’s in 7 games. Dwayne Bowe had his first 100 yard game of the season and the third of his career. He is quietly putting together a big season and is on pace for 88 catches and 1100 yards. Tony Gonzalez started slow but has 12 catches for 176 yards in his last two games.

Texans over Bengals or “Marvin Lewis STILL has a job?”

This season is not salvageable but I still have to ask this question all of the time. The Bengals are just absolutely positively a bad team. They lost Carson Palmer for the year, yes, but I don’t think it matters. They can’t play defense, they can’t run and now they can’t throw. Next season is likely to see some old faces (T.J. Housh and Ocho Cinco) leaving and the Bengals going into full rebuilding mode. Get a new coach lined up and have him start looking at who needs to stay and who needs to go.

The Texans set the tone for the game when Jacoby Jones took the opening kick all the way in for a touchdown. Andre Johnson was (I think) double and triple teamed all day but often found himself with no Bengals within three yards. He’s out of control. Dunta Robinson celebrated his return to the NFL with an interception in his second game back.

This team has a lot of talent on it and are fun to watch. Well, at least they are fun to watch when not playing the Bengals. I don’t think any Bengals game has been much fun. As I’ve mentioned before they suddenly have quite a few fantasy relevant players: Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton are all worth a roster spot. Most of them are worth a starting nod most weeks.

Statistical Notes – Andre Johnson had his fifth 100 yard game of the season and has double digit catches in four of seven…and he caught nine balls in another game. He leads the league in both receptions and yards and is on pace for 114 catches and 1700 yards. Steve Slaton has at least one TD in five of the last six games. After a rocky start, Matt Schaub is on a four game tear where he is averaging 308 yards per game and has 9 TD’s to only 2 INTs. Heck, toss in a rushing touchdown for good measure.

Browns over Jaguars or “No! You are supposed to win at home!”

The Jaguars are now 1-3 at home, 2-1 on the road for the season putting themselves and the Browns with the pack of 3-4 AFC teams. On paper, the Jaguars had to be salivating at this matchup. The Browns have been pretty bad against the run this season, giving up 4.7 Yards per carry. Unfortunately, the broken up Jaguars line couldn’t open any holes in the stacked box Browns defense and were forced to try to open things up through the air. It’s hard for the Jags to win when Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are essentially taken out of the game. Late in the second half, the Jaguars had 3^rd and 2 in Browns territory. Gain of one, gain of zero and the ball is turned over on downs. Not being able to get 2 yards in two plays means your offensive line is doing a terrible job getting off the ball. A first down would have put them at the 36 and within a few yards of a field goal try. Instead, the Browns get the ball on a short field and put up 3 of their own.

Speaking of field goals, the Jaguars missed another opportunity. They scored early in the first half and were driving again. Josh Scobee, who has been very reliable this season, lined up for a 38 yard field goal. The Browns got tremendous penetration up the middle and came up with a block. That field goal would have tied the game. Later in the game, the Jags were down by three with under five minutes remaining. Will Witherspoon took the kickoff and ran forward into his own man. Ball pops loose and the Browns get to put up 3 more. The Jaguars got the ball back with 1:51 left. It took them 70 seconds to run 3 plays. Yeah, the clock was ticking, but you need to operate faster than that.

The Browns needed 8 plays last week to get in from the one yard line. Facing first and goal from the Jaguars 1, they ran, lost one. Incomplete, Incomplete, Field goal. Ouch. Time to work on the short yardage plays.

Statistical Notes – Derek Anderson has 3 TD’s and 0 INTs in his last three games. Jamal Lewis has at least 80 yards rushing in the last four games and has scored three times in that span. Matt Jones had his first 100 yard game of the season and leads the Jaguars in receptions and yards. I don’t know what is going on with his legal matters, but it’s a shame that Jones got himself in trouble. David Garrard is back to his old ways, taking care of the ball. After throwing 4 INT’s in his first three games, he has gone four games without one. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have three 100 yard games between them. Their next highest game totals are 49 and 32. That isn’t good.

Falcons over Eagles or “Instant Review rule looms large….”

Replay Rule Segue: I have to wonder if this game will cause a change in Instant Replay rules. In case you didn’t see it, the Falcons were down 20-7 with about four and a half minutes to play in the game. They were facing a fourth and five at the Eagles’ 15 yard line. Matt Ryan was forced to call a time out to talk the play over. They picked up the first down and two plays later scored to make it 20-14. They kicked the ball deep and needed a big defensive stop. They gave up 8 yards on first down but stopped Brian Westbrook from gaining 2 yards in 2 carries. They wisely burned their last two time outs to keep the Eagles from running down the clock and were going to get the ball back in decent field position with over 2 minutes left, down by only 6 points. The punt went high in the air and Adam Jennings tried to clear out of the way instead of field it. The ball hit the ground near Jennings and the officials believed that it touched him. The Eagles jump on the ball and it is ruled Eagles ball. The Falcons are sure that the ball was NOT touched and replay shows that it probably wasn’t. Because there are more than 2 minutes there cannot be a booth review. Because the Falcons do not have a time out (in case they lost the challenge they needed to be holding a time out) they couldn’t throw the challenge flag. The Falcons could still get the ball back with very little time left but two plays later Brian Westbrook busts his second TD of the game to seal the victory. I know that Instant Replay can slow down the game so there are rules in place to make sure the Officials aren’t constantly reviewing play calls, but in this case the system did not work. The Falcons used their timeouts properly over the course of the second half and had a legitimate gripe about the call. There are rules in place for penalizing a team for calling a time out back to back or for calling a time out when they do not have one. Perhaps a penalty can be enforced on a lost challenge when the team is not holding any timeouts?

The Eagles have not been that great in the red zone this year, converting on 14/30 tries. I can’t find solid red zone stats but I’d have to say that 50% won’t cut it. With Brian Westbrook in the line I thought it might help out a bit. Westbrook has developed a nose for the end zone. The Eagles went 2/4 again and failed to convert on 2^nd and goal from the 2, 2^nd and goal from the 1, and 3^rd and goal from the one. I mentioned it before but I think it may be time to start thinking of using some type of lead blocker for these short yardage situations. Shaun Alexander and Ladainian Tomlinson were rarely denied near the goal line in their huge TD seasons with guys like Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal leading the way. Perhaps even lining up a Tight End in the back field if the team does not want to carry a fullback?

Michael Turner and Matt Ryan got a dose of reality a little bit in this game. Michael Turner plugged away at about 3.2 YPC and Matt Ryan dropped down to about 6 yards per pass attempt and threw two picks. Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that the Eagles defense is somewhat under rated. They are giving up 283 yards per game and without the Cowboys and Redskins contests, the other five games have them holding opponents to 248 yards. That didn’t prevent Roddy White from getting open. He’s truly developing into a top tier receiver.

Statistical Notes – Despite essentially only playing four games, Westbrook has 8 TD’s and has 500 total yards. I don’t think I need to tell you how big his season could have been if he remained healthy. He added some explosiveness that the Eagles were lacking. He had the sixth 200+ combined yard game of his career in his comeback game. 11 different Eagles players have a sack this season and they have 23 as a team. Michael Turner was held to less than 60 yards in 3 out of the last 4 games. Roddy White is averaging 7 catches, 113 yards, and a TD in his last five games. Matt Ryan had 3 INT’s in his first 6 NFL games and 2 INT’s Sunday.

Giants over Pittsburgh or “Ben Roethlisberger is one tough guy.”

This was one heck of a physical football game. A lot of big hits, some of which proved to be costly. The Steelers lost their long snapper Greg Warren (Probably for the season) which resulted in a punt snapped well over Jeff Feagles head and 2 points for the Giants. Early in this fourth quarter, the Giants having had difficulties moving the ball, Eli Manning found Steve Smith near the end zone. Safety Ryan Clark came in and hit Smith really hard, jarring the ball loose which saved a big play…but he was injured in the process. Cornerback Ike Taylor was hurt a few plays later and the Giants had an easier time moving the ball the rest of the fourth quarter.

I can’t find stats on knock downs and hurries, but in addition to being sacked 5 times, I would hazard to guess that Big Ben was hit on around 15 of his 29 pass attempts. On the stat sheet, it looks like he played terrible having thrown four interceptions, but he had an awfully hard day finding time to throw (His first INT was thrown when he had time and was a terrible pass). He’s been sacked 23 times this season total and hit a LOT. Obviously some of the credit has to be given to the Giants defense because they were fantastic on the pass rush.

The Steelers run defense smothered Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, which is no easy task. They Giants were averaging 170 yards per game on the ground at around 5.4 yards per carry. The two Giants backs carried the ball 31 times and managed only 84 total yards, 2.7 yards per attempt. In the first half, the Steelers mounted a goal line stand for the ages, keeping the Giants out of the end zone on 1^st and goal from the 2, 2^nd and goal from the 2, and four straight from the 1.

This was a huge win for the Giants. They hung in there and beat a really tough Steelers team on the road. They seem to me to be the class of the NFC. The Steelers have some serious protection problems that they need to take care of because they have a really brutal schedule ahead of them. They are at Washington, Colts, Chargers, at the Patriots, Cowboys, at Baltimore, and At Tennessee yet. I think they win their division but they are in the midst of what may be the roughest schedule I have ever seen.

Statistical Notes – Eli Manning has thrown a TD in 20/23 games in the last two seasons. This year, he has four interceptions but has not thrown one in five of seven games. Big Ben had 3 INT’s in his last 9 regular season games and threw four on Sunday. Mewelde Moore has 344 total yards and four TD’s in his last three games. Nate Washington has scored in three straight games.

Titans over Colts or “The King is dead! Titans clinch division in week 8.”

Ok, maybe I’m being a tad premature, but taking a four game lead at this point in the season is pretty serious. If the Titans go even 5-4 in the last nine games the Colts, Jaguars, or Texans have to win out. The last time the Colts did not win this division was 2003.

To be honest, I was not that impressed by the Titans for the first half of the game. I expected them to absolutely dominate the Colts on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I think Kyle Vanden Bosch sitting out probably affected the run defense as well as the pass rush. Dominic Rhodes and Chad Simpson were able to run the ball reasonably well. Even with the Titans not getting as much pressure as expected on Peyton Manning, he still had a hard day and didn’t look up and see his wide outs open very often. Dallas Clark created some problems and helped keep the Colts into this game into the fourth quarter.

The Colts who had given up huge rushing games to the Jaguars, Vikings, Bears, and Texans had to have the Titans Salivating. Without Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney, the Colts held Chris Johnson and Lendale White to 90 yards on 29 carries….or 3.1 yards per carry. They forced Kerry Collins to be the one to gain the yardage and he did, albeit very slowly. They couldn’t keep Johnson and White from three TD’s though.

Statistical Notes – Lendale White has 10 touchdowns in 7 games. He has 91 touches over this span, meaning he scores every 9 times he has the ball. Kerry Collins has not thrown a touchdown or an interception in three of the last four games. Chris Johnson is on pace for 1600 total yards. He has also scored in three of the last four games. Peyton Manning is posting his worst completion percentage, Yards per attempt, INT percentage, passer rating, and yards per game since he was a rookie. Reggie Wayne averaged 93 yards per game over the first five weeks, 27 over the last two. Dallas Clark has 15 catches for 175 yards and 2 TD’s in the last two games.

Carnage’s guesses on games or “Good thing I kept my day job.”

I posted a respectable 8-5 this week making it 68-43 on the season (This is straight up, no spread. I don’t gamble on games, I only care about the outcome.) I did miss my crazy upset pick.

1. Baltimore over Oakland
2. Bucs over Cowboys
3. Redskins over Lions
4. Patriots over Rams
5. Saints over Chargers
6. Jets over Chiefs
7. Eagles over Falcons
8. Jaguars over Browns
9. Texans over Bengals
10. Steelers over Giants
11. 49ers over Seahawks
12. Titans over Colts
13. Cardinals over Panthers

    Next week we have…

14. Bills over Jets
15. Bears over Lions
16. Jaguars over Bengals
17. Ravens over Browns
18. Bucs over Chiefs
19. Cardinals over Rams
20. Titans over Packers
21. Giants over Cowboys
22. Falcons over Raiders
23. Eagles over Seahawks
24. Colts over Patriots
25. Redskins over Steelers
26. Crazy Upset Pick duo! Dolphins over Broncos. Broncos can’t stop the run. Here comes the wildcat! Texans over Vikings. Vikings are getting 4.5 points? With that secondary? If Marty Booker ripped them up imagine what Andre Johnson is going to do!

    That’s all for this week! Enjoy!