Welcome to Eighth Edition of Carnage’s Long and Boring Weekly Review. For those of you interested in reading the review is a prettier format, please visit http://probonofantasy.wordpress.com (Takes you right to the blog page) or a new site that I have been asked to write for. http://www.probonofantasy.5u.com/. Like I said, it’s a new site but it has some other good staffers that will be putting up good articles on a consistent basis. For those of you that prefer to still read the review here….hey! Here it is! I think reading on the web site is better though. I can put pretty colors in to make it slightly less boring.
Well, as always, guess what my opening statement is? Yup, as a general rule, the team that ran the ball is the team that won. Out of 13 games on Sunday, only one team with the higher pass to run ratio pulled off the win (Eagles over Vikings). Winning teams together Ran the ball 53.4% of the time. Losing teams on average rushed a paltry 39% of the time. Before you tell me that TE biggest differentials were in blowout games…read on. I will have more on that later, and you may be surprised.
Let us get to the games, shall we?
Lions over Bears or “Jon Kitna, football player or fortune teller?”
The den of laughter that Jon Kitna’s prediction that his team would win 10 games this season is starting to die down. For the second time this year they took down the defending NFC Champs to improve to 5-2….to remain one bad Brett Favre game at Denver away from being tied for the division lead. They must have just thrown the ball all over the field in a high scoring affair, right? Wrong. Despite a good game by Jon Kitna they won this game by….rushing the ball….and playing defense? The Lions? Seriously? Yup. Kevin Jones truly changes the dynamic of this team. Watching this game, I not only was convinced that the could run the ball, but that they SHOULD run the ball, despite the gluttony of talent that they have at the WR position. My only problem with their game was that the offensive line let the D get to Kitna a few too many times. At 35 years old, he isn’t a spring chicken…and he is currently too important to this team to have to hand it over to Dan Ovlosky or J.T. O’Sullivan for a few games.
This loss has got to hurt for the Bears. First, the difference between 4-4 and 3-5 is enormous. With a lot of the teams in the NFC mired in a sort of uncertainty about how good they really are….4-4 puts the Bears on somewhat of a hot streak… winning 3 of their last 4…and right back into contention for a playoff spot. People were starting to believe in Brian Griese. He engineered fourth quarter comebacks against the Packers and Eagles and was looking to be a guy that would make much fewer mistakes than Rex Grossman. I can’t remember now but I think at least two of his picks were on tipped balls, but he was making a lot of ill advised passes. Cedric Benson….I just don’t know. He finally found a couple of holes here and there but to me it looks as if he’s running…timidly or something. Adrian Peterson (Bears version) is certainly not an extremely talented back, but the Bears may want to consider giving him a few more reps to see what he has…or maybe even bring Garrett Wolfe out there. Maybe a threat to his position would light a fire under Benson.
Statistical Notes - Of course, it’s hard to give other backs a look when you refuse to run the ball. The Bears dropped back and handed the ball off to a tailback only fifteen times while letting Brian Griese…clearly having an off day, throw FORTY times. Since handing the team to Greise, the Bears have passed 203 times in five games…an average of 40 times. One of the 2 games they won in that stretch…Greise only threw 25 times. Kevin Jones has gone over 100 total yards for the second week in a row and has a touchdown in 5 of his last six games. Jon Kitna has been sacked 35 times this season.
Colts over Panthers or “Don’t give them a chance to he it the on switch!”
Last year, watching the Colts/Patriots AFC Championship game…..with the Colts not looking so good and down nearing halftime, I thought the Patriots were going to the Super Bowl…..and then Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai hit the “On” switch and took their game to the next level. Today, early on, the Panthers looked like they could win this ball game. They took the first possession and immediately marched the ball downfield in an impressive, patient, 11 minute drive. Peyton Manning comes in….and it’s three and out! Punt, Fumble, Colts ball. The Panthers hold them to a field goal in the Red Zone. Next Colts possession….three and out. Next possession…two and fumble. Next possession? Three and out. The vaunted Colts offense steps onto the field with 3:30 remaining in the first half…having only gained 41 yards on offense….
Then it’s over. The Colts score on that possession and on three of their next four. How disheartening for the Panthers to have pretty much dominated the Colts for the first 27 minutes yet go into the locker room down by 3. Between the muffed punt and goal line interception, this team really blew their chances of winning. I wonder how different this team would be with Jake Delhomme. Without the big game against the Cardinals, Steve Smith has 12 catches for 107 yards in the other four games since Delhomme went down. Smith is by far their most explosive weapon, and they must find a way to get him the ball…somehow.
On the bright side of things, the Panthers defense played a really strong first half of football. Peyton Manning completed under 50% of his passes for the first time in who knows how long. Unfortunately for Colts opponents, stopping Peyton Manning is not the only issue. Joseph Addai is blossoming into quite the back. Two years ago skeptics were saying that the departure of Edgerrin James would hurt this team pretty badly. With Addai around I wonder if anyone in Indy even remembers The Edge.
Statistical Notes – Joseph Addai has scored at least one TD in five of six contests this year, and has gone over 100 total yards in four of them. As Slashsnake pointed out, the Colts are a very balanced team this year and had a 50/50 run/pass ratio this week and a 48/52 for the season. The Panthers passing attack with Jake Delhomme? 64 completion rate and 8 to 1 TD to INT ratio. Without Delhomme? 57% completions, 3 to 3 TD/INT. Weren’t some Panthers fans hoping Delhomme would be replaced by David Carr this season? Careful what you wish for. Julius Peppers, likely to make it to the Pro Bowl on name recognition alone, posted TWO ASSISTS in this game. Seriously. Two Assists. That was his stat line. Double team or no…the great ones find a way to make plays….
Steelers over Bengal’s or “I don’t really want to talk about the Bengal’s.”
The buzz is in Cincy! The Bungles are no more! They are division champs are open the post season at home against the Steelers! How long ago was that? 20 years ago? This team just doesn’t look good. I sense a huge locker room meltdown coming soon. This team has way too much talent on offense to be 2-5.
The Steelers have to be feeling pretty good with their defense playing tough, their running game going, and now getting a healthy Hines Ward back to playing good football. Despite showing chinks in their armor by being beaten by the Cardinals and the Broncos….The Steelers can play ball…and I love their game plan….go out and play tough defense, commit to running the ball a lot which sets up their high percentage passing game.
Statistical Notes - What do the losses against the Cardinals and Broncos have in common? Those two games were the games where Willie parker touched the ball least and 2 of the 3 times Ben Roethlisberger threw more than 30 times (The other time was against the Bills). Like I said, I like their game plan…and when they stick with it…they win! Willie Parker has gone over 100 yards total in 6 of 7 games and is on pace for a 1600 yard season on the ground. This game was the first time the Bengal’s did not have a WR or RB go for over 100 yards in a game since…the last time the Steelers and Bengal’s met in the last week of the season last year. The Bengal’s wideout has caught a touchdown in every game this season and is on pace for a 130 Catch, 21 TD season. Which wideout? The one not named Chad Johnson.
Before I discuss the next game, I feel I need to address the NFL’s attempted expansion into foreign markets. Roger Goddell, the NFL is the hottest sport around right now. Neither the Patriots “Spygate” scandal or so many of the players running amuck and getting themselves into trouble has managed to tarnish the image of the league to the point of losing viewers. The industry is such a cash cow I can’t even begin to imagine the figures. It’s quite simple…if it isn’t broke…don’t try to fix it. I know thus far it has only been two regular season games….but don’t let the obsession over penetrating foreign markets make you do something you’ll regret. The American people can be fickle. If they feel you are trying to push games into foreign markets….they will feel put out….and the inconceivable could happen….football could lose it’s crown as the king of sports to baseball or basketball. Right now, the entire debacle with NFL Season Ticket and the NFL Network not being available to a large number of viewers is causing some to be disgruntled. You can trust me when I say that having the Super Bowl played in London or other foreign city would anger many people. “American” Football is one of the things that remains almost exclusively “Ours” in these days where every industry wants to add the word “Globalization” to their revenue meetings. The more things you do to take the ability to see/attend NFL games for American Citizens, the more chance you take on killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs. The Romans, The Ottomans, Byzantium, the Persians…they were all Empires that crumbled essentially from trying to stretch too far. The little Empire that the NFL has carved out is not immune to this fact.
Giants over Dolphins or “I dare say good chap, I don’t see what those silly Americans see in this game. It was less fun than that conversation about cricket over a spot of tea.”
Honestly, the people of England must be wondering what the fuss is over the game. This was one of the duller NFL games in recent memory…although the score ended up close in the end. By the end of the contest, they must have been wondering if the goal was to make the ball touch the ground…because between Eli Manning’s passes and the constant fumbling…that sure looked like the norm! Just when Eli is starting to look good he goes out and drops a 8/22 for 59 yards performance. Luckily they got to observe the Giants rushing attack….which is quickly making people forget about that Tiki Barber guy.
The Dolphins are painful to even think about right now. Their two best offensive players…..Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers, have been lost to injury and trades. On the bright side of things, Ted Ginn Jr. finally made a contribution to the team. Still, 0-16 is looking more and more attainable every week.
Statistical Notes – I believe I’ve noted this before, but over the past three years, with Tiki Barber leading the charge, the Giants running backs put up an average of 2450 yards of total offense per year. This year, with Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward leading the charger, they are on pace for 2290 yards. What’s more, Jacobs is averaging a bloated 5.6 Yards per Carry. All pre season, I ranted about how the Giants could never replace Tiki’s production and how he was just awesome with his 5.0 YPC clip. Ooops. With Chris Chambers gone to San Diego, with the season halfway finished, the Wideouts currently on the Dolphins roster have a combined 45 catches for 601 yards and 3 TD’s. I really hope I don’t have to expound on how pathetic that really is. Eli Manning failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and only the fourth time in the last forty games.
Eagles over Vikings or “Dumbest thing ever said: I think we’ll be fine this year with Tavaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger as our Quarterbacks.”
Oh man. I feel so sorry for the players on the Vikings defensive line…notably the two best defensive tackles than nobody has ever heard of…Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. They anchor a defense that is just ridiculous against the run. These guys show up every week and just stuff opposing running backs. This week it was tremendously underrated running back Brian Westbrook….who usually is disappointing if he falls under the 4.5 YPC clip. This week? 21 carries, 46 yards. Every week they watch supposed stars like Darren Sharper and Antoine Winfield bungle the pass coverage. Every week they watch Tavaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger, or Kelly Holcomb attempt to emulate an NFL quarterback. Even the studly Adrian Peterson, finally getting an appropriate amount of carries, could help this team out. For the first time this year, Peterson looked human!
I read earlier this week on the message boards that some Eagles fans wouldn’t mind Donovan McNabb getting benched to put Kevin Kolb into the game. I don’t know if anyone realizes it…..but McNabb is having a really good year. Yeah, his 8 TD’s are down, but the guy gets pummeled almost every week. The Eagles are just behind the Lions with 27 sacks allowed. Still, McNabb has an 8 to 2 TD to INT ratio, throws for 234 yards per game, and has a 90 QB rating.
I really don’t know what to think of this Eagles team. One week it’s time to write them off, the next week it looks like they could just make a run at the playoffs yet. They have some talented players on offense, and their defense is playing pretty well…getting to the quarterback, stopping the run… They are just having some serious red zone woes. They have had to settle for 14 field goals inside the red zone, and 9 inside the ten. I believe this stems from their lack of a big, physical, Wide Receiver (Reggie Brown is their biggest at 6′ 2″) and the fact that they simply are not utilizing their tight ends. L.J. Smith has been out for a few games, but combined with Matt Schobel and Brent Celek (who?) the Philly Tight Ends have only 18 catches and 1 TD.
Statistical Notes – The Vikings QB’s this season are 97/195 (Just under 50% completion rate) for 1168 yards. That’s plain terrible. Their “best” receiver has 23 catches for 279 yards and 0 TD’s on the season. Brian Westbroook failed to gain 100 total yards for the first time this season. Trevor Cole, with two sacks, ties his career high of seven and leads a squad that has 24 sacks this season.
Browns over Rams or “For 8 minutes I thought the greatest show on turf was back…”
Before I even got a chance to flip the channel over to this game at all, the Rams were marching down the field for the second time in the first quarter. A curiosity on my part….two plays before I put this game on TV, gamecenter was apparently a “Flea Flicker” play that resulted in a 1 yard pass to Steven Jackson….how is that possible? Marc Bulger handed off to Steven Jackson, Jackson pitched it back to Bulger and then Bulger threw the ball right back to Jackson? Anyone who saw this…let me know. Marc Bulger looked good this game, despite committing the only turnover. He spread the ball around to Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Drew Bennett…as we have been waiting for since Week 1. Steven Jackson looked like he was ready to come out of his shell when he left the game and didn’t return. I won’t comment on either defense….as far as I’m concerned they were not even there.
At any rate, of course the Rams lost. I really really was down on this Browns team the first few games of this season, but I’m really starting to like them. Had they pulled off that game against the Raiders, you’d be looking at a 5-2 team whose only losses came against the Steelers and Patriots. This victory was nice in the fact that they came out and were down 14-0 before they knew it. But instead of going into a frenzied panic, they stuck to their offensive game plan and won. From the time they were down 14 to the time they pulled within 4, they called 8 running plays to 6 passes. Braylon Edwards has been playing stupid good football this season.
Statistical Notes – Braylon Edwards posted his third 100 yard game and third multiple TD catch game. He is on pace to hit 1500 yards and 20 TD’s. Derek Anderson’s stats…18/25 for 245 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Wait! That’s last week. Derek Anderson’s Stats. 18/25 for 248 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INTs. There. Much better. Does anyone realize the “Who Dat” suddenly is on pace for a 4000 yard, 40 TD season? Jamal Lewis has 67 carries for 227 yards when he isn’t playing the Bengal’s, and 27 carries for 216 yards when he is. Still, I admit that they stick to plugging away with either Lewis or Jason Wright. Tory Holt had a 100 yard game for the first time since week 11 of last season. Steven Jackson has 77 carries for 274 yards on the year and Brian Leonard has 77 caries for 276 yards. The Browns last two opponents are a combined 0-16.
Speaking of which, is it possible that one of these teams could actual go 0-16. The Dolphins are now completely bereft of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and the Rams are bereft of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I actually hope that both of these teams pull off at least one victory. Imagine how demoralizing it would be, especially for the younger players, to fail to be on the winning side for an entire season.
Titans over Raiders or “Len Dale White over Raiders”
The Titans are 5-2! Yeah, their recent victories won’t win any beauty pageants, but they are wins nonetheless. Len Dale white had 141 yards of total offense. The rest of the Titans had 85. Since there isn’t much more to talk about on the offensive side of the Titans ball, I have to relate how well the defense has been playing this year. With the player who is arguable their best defender too busy making it rain, the Titans have been superb. We are talking tied for second in INT’s, tied for first in passes defended, in the top ten in average yards and among the Elites (Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, and Colts) in points allowed. This week, they started adding sacks to their resume, getting to Daunte Culpepper five times.
The Raiders are falling apart and it’s time to put JaMarcus Russell into the mix to see what he can do. Since Culpeppers “F-You” five TD performance against the Dolphins, he has 2 TDs, four interceptions, has been sacked countless times, and fumbled the ball away three times this week. Speaking of seeing what acquisitions can do…how about putting in Dominic Rhodes? They paid him a significant amount of money and he has 10 touches all season long.
Statistical Notes - Lamont Jordan in his first four games? 84 carries for 424 yards (5.0 YPC), 2 TD’s, and 128 Receiving yards. Lamont Jordan in the last three games? 41 carries for 87 yards (2.1 YPC), 0 TD’s, and 86 Receiving yards. This game was the worst yet. Without the carry where he “Busted Loose!” for 7 yards, Jordan had 11 rushes for 9 yards. Yikes. The three headed monster at running back (Len Dale White, Chris Henry, and Chris Brown) are on pace for over 2300 total yards and…to my knowledge, 0 illegitimate children. Vince Young has yet to pass for 200 yards in a game this season and has failed to go over 100 for the second time.
Bills over Jets or “I can’t believe I dumped Lee Evans in TWO fantasy leagues two weeks ago….”
The Bills are now winners of 3 of their last 4 and may not be as bad as originally suspected. Their four losses are against teams a combined 22-6 with two of those losses being by a single point….all this despite being one of the worst teams on paper. NFL Ranks – Passing yards: 32 Passing TD’s: 32 Yards per Pass: 27 Rushing Yards: 23 Rushing yards per attempt: 23 Total Yards: 31 Pass Defense: 27 Average Yards allowed per rush: 29. Total yards: 26.
The Jets really bugged me this game. It’s a close contest and your running backs are toting the ball at a 5.0 YPC clip. You don’t really have much faith in either quarterback you have so you…..call 35 pass plays? Chad Pennington is out there getting chased all over the field, getting sacked repeatedly, but still managing to complete half of his passes and not throwing an INT. To the fans delight, Eric Mangini decides that the Jets need Kellen Clemens to come in for a boost! The Crowd goes wild! And He throws two picks! Nice job.
On the other side of the offense, the Bills faithful cringed when ineffective Trent Edwards, who has had a stellar 1 to 5 INT to TD ratio, is replaced by J.P. Losman. Losman comes in and wins the game by throwing five passes. Pretty wacky stuff. Note: realizing that their QB’s are pretty bad, the Bills, unlike the Jets, called 35 rushing plays to 27 passing plays. I wonder who won?
Statistical Notes - Marshawn Lynch is carrying a big load and is running hard, but he has failed to break the 100 yard rushing mark this season. Lee Evans caught 12 balls for 113 yards his first five games. The past two he has 10 grabs for 236 yards and a score. Chad Pennington has a 67% completion rate, a 6.9 YPA average, 9 TDs and 7 INTs. Kellen Clemens has a 49% completion rate, a 6.1 YPA average, and 1 TD to 4 INTs. Why do the Jets fans keep cheering for Clemens?
Chargers over Texans or “How to put up 35 points with less than 175 yards of offense in 5 easy steps…”
The Chargers are surging again suddenly. One month ago they were sitting at 1-3. After winning three straight, they sit atop the West tied with the Cheifs. Fact is, the teams that they lost to have a combined record of 18-4! Perhaps losing to the Packers at Lambeau was no shame after all.
The more I watch I wonder…people talk of LaDanian Tomlinson as the MVP of the league….I wonder if he’s the MVP of his TEAM. Antonio Gates is difficult to cover. He creates matchup problems all over the field. When you have a tight end romping for 30 and 50 yard touchdowns…that’s trouble. Sure, Tomlison had another pretty solid game…although most of what he was asked to do was grind the ball out for awhile…but throughout this entire shaky early season Antonio Gates has been the one consistent performer on that offense.
The Houston Texans were a neat story to start this season…but it’s almost time to start playing Taps on this season. The turnovers this week were a killer…obviously…with two of them ending with the defense taking the ball the other way for Seven. Both Sage Rosenfels and Matt Schaub contributed with 2 INT’s each and a fumble was thrown in for good measure. I think the Texans did make strides but the injuries ended up being too much for them to handle this year, as I’ve said many times before. When you start looking at Ron Dayne and some guy named Echanabu or something as your running backs, things are going to get ugly. I think Matt Schaub, although he has looked pretty bad lately, has just been taking a pounding and has limited numbers of weapons. Amazingly enough, Kevin Walter seems to have a knack for getting open. If Jacoby Jones continues to improve, if Andre Johnson ever plays again they have a nice start to a talented core of receivers. The defense started out the season playing fairly well, but they have really melted down. Out of Total offense, Yards per Rush, Total passing yards, and Interceptions, the Texans rank no higher than 26th in the league.
Statistical Notes – Chris Chambers failed to find the end zone since week 9 with the Dolphins. In his first game with the Chargers…he gets in. Chambers should be a good addition to this team. As I mentioned before, Gates continues to impress. He has 14 touchdowns in his last 13 games and is on pace for over 100 catches, 1500 yards, and 12 TDs. Those are numbers any top tier wideout would be proud of. After catching 4 balls for 37 yards the first three games, Kevin Walker is averaging 7 catches and 95 yards the last five. These numbers are deceiving due to the fact that the Texans have played a total of eight games…but they are currently number 3 in the NFL in total offense, passing yards, and yards per passing attempt. the Downside? Dead last in Yards per carry and 30th in rushing offense. Rosenfels and Schaub are both currently sitting at an impressive 67% completion rate.
Jaguars over Buccaneers or “Better to be Ugly and win than pretty and lose….”
Going into the locker room at half time, the Jaguars enjoyed a 4 point edge in scoring despite having 83 yards of total offense. Quinn Gray is not an adequate replacement for David Garrard. They got away with one (A big one, rebounding from that loss to the Colts) but I surely wouldn’t want to have to give it too many more tries. They move to 5-2 but they really needed this game. The Jags are a good team but their remaining schedule has such gems as At the Titans, Chargers, at Colts, and at Steelers. Despite a great start, they have a lot of tough football to play if they want to make it to the post season.
Tampa Bay highly disappointed me today. Their game has been Run ball down opponent’s throat, pass sparingly. For some reason, they decided to come out throwing the ball this week instead. Prior to this week, the Bucs had ran the ball more than they passed. This week, they passed 42 times and ran 21. This pass wackiness changed Jeff Garcia from the mistake free veteran we have seen thus far to a 3 INT (One Pick Six) throwing fool. WHY? This team was never down more than 14 points and cut the lead to three by the half. They missed a Golden Opportunity to take the lead in the NFC South. I do expect them to rebound and eventually win the division. They have a pretty weak schedule coming up A struggling Cardinals team, a really bad Falcons team, a struggling Texans team, and a struggling 49ers team…..and two of the better teams on the schedule they get to play against on their home turf.
Statistical Notes – Jeff Garcia threw his first, second, and third INT’s of the season this week….that amounts to more INT’s than his previous 13 starts combined. He hasn’t thrown multiple INT’s in a game since he was wearing a Lions uniform, and for only the fourth time since he was wearing a 49ers uniform. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones have combined for a 4.7 YPC average, but were stuffed for 3 YPC against the Bucs D.
Patriots over Redskins or “Maybe 19-0 IS doable….”
The Redskins are not an elite team…but they are a pretty solid one. They are not a bunch of rag dolls that you expect to get beat by 49 points. Look, everyone can complain about Spygate, running up the score, the Patriots being evil…..but love them or hate them…they are playing such incredible football that it is tough to find words to describe it. They had nearly 500 total yards, 34 first downs, and completely smothered a talented Redskins offense.
How in the world do they continue to get away with the old Mike Vrabel play? Vrabel has caught close to 10 touchdown passes inside the five during his time with the Patriots. Every time they run that play it looks the same. He lines up on the right, Tom Brady tolls out, and nobody covers him. He’s just wide open! Note to teams that have to play the Patriots yet this season. If Vrabel check in as an eligible receiver , CHECK HIM!!!
Statistical Notes – In the past three games, Randy Moss has caught 14 passes. Wes Welker has caught 29. I know teams are gearing up to stop Moss…..but Welker is really starting to emerge as a threat. He is now on pace for 112 catches, 1226 yards, and 12 TDs. Of course, moss is on pace for 94, 1550, and 22 TD’s. Brady? Yeah. On Track for 4900 yards, 60 TD’s, and 4 INT’s. In their first six games, the Redskins allowed 88 points…or a little over 4 a game.
The Big match up of the Patriots and Colts next week is not the Super Bowl. I repeat…it is not the Super Bowl. One thing is for sure, everyone really wants to see how the game turns out. The Colts are a really really good team with a really really great QB. They have not lost yet this season Alex Smith is coming back from injury and probably isn’t. The current line has them getting FIVE POINTS at home against the Pats. FIVE. Can anyone remember the last time the Colts were five point dogs AT HOME? I personally have no vested interest in the game. The outcome itself won’t invoke strong emotions in me…..but this is one game I certainly want to see.
Saints over 49ers or “And the Frank Gore Rule stands!”
Last week, I pointed out that the 49s are 0-19 over the last few years when Frank Gore gets less than 19 rushing attempts. He was given 12 carries. Guess what the end result was? Yeah, they fell behind early, but they didn’t really come out and try to establish a run early on.
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People what’s scary here is this is an incomplete article. Carnage is a beast!!!